Health economists often use discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to predict behavior, as actual market data is often unavailable. Manski (1990) argues that due to the incompleteness of the hypothetical scenarios used in DCEs, substantial uncertainty surrounds stated choice. Uncertainty can be decomposed into “resolvable” and “unresolvable”; the former is expected to become resolved in actual choice, as individuals collect further information. To enable its identification, Manski suggests eliciting subjective choice probabilities (ECPs) rather than discrete choices. We introduce the ECP approach in health economics and explore its convergent validity. The context is future physicians’ stated choices of job in rural general practice in Denmark. Our results are mixed, but show remarkable similarities in forecasting abilities, despite the ECP models being less econometrically demanding and relying on different preference distributional assumptions.

卫生经济学家经常使用离散选择实验（DCE）来预测行为，因为通常无法获得实际的市场数据。Manski（1990）认为，由于DCE中使用的假设情景的不完整性，陈述的选择周围存在很大的不确定性。不确定性可以分解为“可解决的”和“不可解决的”；随着个人收集更多信息，前者有望在实际选择中解决。为了进行识别，Manski建议引发主观选择概率（ECP），而不是离散选择。我们在健康经济学中介绍了ECP方法，并探讨了其收敛效度。背景是未来医生在丹麦农村普通实践中陈述的工作选择。我们的结果好坏参半，但在预测能力上却显示出惊人的相似之处，