This study investigates the recent near-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Peninsula. We make use of available surface observations, ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as numerical simulations, allowing us to contrast different data sources. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1991-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~50 km) for further comparisons. Results show that there is a marked windward warming trend except during summer. This windward warming trend is particularly notable in the autumn season and likely to be associated with the recent deepening of the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea low and warm advection towards the Antarctic Peninsula. On the other hand, an overall summer cooling is characterized by the strengthening of the Weddell Sea low as well as an anticyclonic trend over the Amundsen Sea accompanied by northward winds. The persistent cooling trend observed at the Larsen Ice Shelf station is not captured by ERA-Interim, whereas hindcast simulations indicate that there is a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling. Furthermore, larger temporal correlations and lower differences exhibited by PWRF-15 illustrate the existence of the added value in the higher spatial resolution simulation. 本文分析了近期南极半岛上的近地面温度趋势,并利用现有的表面观测数据、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ERA5和其前身ERA-Interim产品以及模式模拟数据,对不同的数据源进行了比较。我们使用极地WRF模式,以45公里(PWRF-45)和15公里(PWRF-15)空间分辨率的嵌套域配置进行了1991-2015年期间的后报试验。此外,我们还从CORDEX南极区域(约50km)获取了KNMI-RACMO21P的后报试验结果以做进一步的比较。结果表明,除夏季外其余季节均呈现明显的迎风增暖趋势,秋季尤为显著,这可能与近期阿蒙森-别林斯高晋海的低压加深及朝向南极半岛的暖平流有关,而夏季整体变冷的特征为威德尔海低压的加强及阿蒙森海上空的反气旋趋势并伴有北风。ERA-Interim没有捕获到拉森冰架站观测到的持续变冷趋势,而后报试验结果显示出明显的迎风增暖和背风变冷型态。此外,PWRF-15表现出更大的时间相关性和更低的差异,表明在较高空间分辨率的模拟中附加值的存在。

中文翻译：

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来自观测、再分析和区域气候模式数据的南极半岛近期近地表温度趋势

这项研究调查了南极半岛最近的近地表温度趋势。我们利用可用的表面观测、ECMWF 的 ERA5 及其前身 ERA-Interim 以及数值模拟，使我们能够对比不同的数据源。我们在 1991 年至 2015 年期间在 45 公里 (PWRF-45) 和 15 公里 (PWRF-15) 空间分辨率的嵌套域配置上使用 Polar-WRF 在南极半岛上进行的后报模拟。此外，我们还包括从 CORDEX-Antarctica 域（~50 公里）获得的 KNMI-RACMO21P 的后报模拟，以进行进一步比较。结果表明，除夏季外，有明显的迎风变暖趋势。这种迎风变暖趋势在秋季尤为显着，可能与阿蒙森/贝林斯豪森海最近向南极半岛的低热平流加深有关。另一方面，整体夏季降温的特点是威德尔海低气压加强以及阿蒙森海的反气旋趋势伴随着北风。在拉森冰架站观察到的持续降温趋势未被 ERA-Interim 捕获，而后报模拟表明存在明显的迎风变暖和背风冷却模式。此外，PWRF-15 表现出的更大的时间相关性和更低的差异说明在更高的空间分辨率模拟中存在附加值。本文分析了近一周地球上的近期温度趋势，