The linkage between the Arctic and midlatitudes has received much attention recently due to the rapidly changing climate. Many investigations have been conducted to reveal the relationship between the Arctic and Eurasian extreme events from the perspective of climatological statistics. As a prediction source for extreme events in Eurasia, Arctic conditions are crucial for extreme event predictions. Therefore, it is urgent to explore the Arctic influence on the predictability of Eurasian extreme events due to the large uncertainties in Arctic conditions. Considering the sensitivity and nonlinearity of the atmospheric circulations in midlatitude to Arctic conditions, it is necessary to investigate the Arctic influences on Eurasian extreme weather events in case studies at weather time scales. Previous studies indicate that only perturbations in specific patterns have fast growth. Thus, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is recommended for exploring the uncertainties in Arctic initial and boundary conditions and their synergistic effect on Eurasian extreme events. Moreover, the mechanism for extreme event formation may differ in different cases. Therefore, more extreme cases should be investigated to reach robust conclusions.

中文翻译：

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北极对欧亚冬季极端天气事件可预测性的影响

由于气候迅速变化，北极和中纬度地区之间的联系最近备受关注。许多调查从气候统计的角度揭示了北极与欧亚极端事件之间的关系。作为欧亚大陆极端事件的预测源，北极条件对极端事件的预测至关重要。因此，由于北极条件的巨大不确定性，探索北极对欧亚极端事件可预测性的影响迫在眉睫。考虑到中纬度大气环流对北极条件的敏感性和非线性，有必要在天气时间尺度的案例研究中调查北极对欧亚极端天气事件的影响。先前的研究表明，只有特定模式的扰动才能快速增长。因此，推荐使用条件非线性最优扰动方法来探索北极初始和边界条件的不确定性及其对欧亚极端事件的协同效应。此外，极端事件形成的机制在不同情况下可能有所不同。因此，应调查更极端的情况以得出可靠的结论。