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Comparing Asian Gypsy Moth [Lymantria dispar asiatica (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) and L. dispar japonica] Trap Data From East Asian Ports With Lab Parameterized Phenology Models: New Tools and Questions
Annals of the Entomological Society of America ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-11 , DOI: 10.1093/aesa/saz037
R Talbot Trotter 1 , Samita Limbu 2 , Kelli Hoover 2 , Hannah Nadel 3 , Melody A Keena 1
Affiliation  

Abstract Management of the European gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar dispar (Linnaeus)] in North America has benefited from more than a century of research. The East Asian strains of the gypsy moth, however, bring new challenges including multiple subspecies (Lymantria dispar asiatica Vnukovskij and Lymantria dispar japonica Motschulsky), broad distributions across heterogeneous habitats, and a lack of data on the variation in the phenology of source populations, which may affect risk.To address these issues, published phenology parameters for eight populations of Asian gypsy moth were used to develop eight strain-specific agent-based phenological models. These models were applied to 47 ports in East Asia where the Asian gypsy moth is native, and output was compared with available trap data to assess the role of interpopulation variation in phenological parameters in predicting moth flight among varied locations, assess variation in the performance of models among years, and assess the importance of modeling phenology using parameters from a ‘local' moth population. Variation in phenological parameters among the eight populations yielded variation in predicted flight times among the 47 ports analyzed, and the use of ‘local’ populations did not generally improve model fit. Model accuracy varied substantially among ports and among years within some ports. The larva-to-adult agent-based models described here have utility in estimating flight periods for some ports in their current form, but variation in model quality across the landscape suggests that there is potential for unsampled and unparameterized moth populations and factors that remain to be quantified.

中文翻译:

比较亚洲吉普赛蛾 [Lymantria dispar asiatica (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) 和 L. dispar japonica] 来自东亚港口的陷阱数据与实验室参数化物候模型:新工具和问题

摘要 北美的欧洲吉普赛蛾 [Lymantria dispar dispar (Linnaeus)] 的管理得益于一个多世纪的研究。然而,吉普赛蛾的东亚品系带来了新的挑战,包括多个亚种(Lymantria dispar asiatica Vnukovskij 和 Lymantria dispar japonica Motschulsky)、跨异质栖息地的广泛分布以及缺乏关于源种群物候变化的数据,这可能会影响风险。为了解决这些问题,我们使用已发布的 8 个亚洲吉普赛蛾种群的物候参数来开发 8 个基于特定菌株的物候模型。这些模型被应用于亚洲吉普赛蛾原产地东亚的 47 个港口,并将输出与可用的陷阱数据进行比较,以评估物候参数中种群间变化在预测不同地点飞蛾飞行中的作用,评估模型性能在不同年份的变化,并评估使用来自“本地”参数的物候学建模的重要性蛾种群。八个种群之间物候参数的变化导致分析的 47 个港口的预测飞行时间发生变化,并且使用“本地”种群通常不会改善模型拟合。模型精度在港口之间和某些港口内的年份之间差异很大。这里描述的基于幼虫到成虫的模型可用于估计某些港口的当前形式的飞行周期,
更新日期:2020-02-11
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