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Integrating Models of Atmospheric Dispersion and Crop-Pest Dynamics: Linking Detection of Local Aphid Infestations to Forecasts of Region-Wide Invasion of Cereal Crops
Annals of the Entomological Society of America ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-11 , DOI: 10.1093/aesa/saz047
Tomasz E Koralewski 1 , Hsiao-Hsuan Wang 1 , William E Grant 1 , Michael J Brewer 2 , Norman C Elliott 3 , John K Westbrook 4 , Adrianna Szczepaniec 5 , Allen Knutson 6 , Kristopher L Giles 7 , J P Michaud 8
Affiliation  

Abstract Invasive airborne insects pose major challenges in natural resource and agriculture management, as they can rapidly spread over large distances and cross physical boundaries. Field monitoring and local management are important tools to prevent and control infestations but require additional coordination to be operative region-wide. Computational modeling techniques have been effective in simulating local population dynamics and in capturing spread of invasive species on a regional scale. We use an integrated ecological model to simulate local and regional infestation dynamics of sugarcane aphids, Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), on sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench (family Poaceae), in the southern to central Great Plains of the United States. Local dynamics of aphid populations on sorghum are simulated by a spatially explicit, individual-based model, whereas regional aphid migration is simulated by an atmospheric model that computes inert air particle (aphid) transport, dispersion, and deposition. Simulation results indicate timing of initial infestations in the south affects spatiotemporal patterns of infestation throughout the region. Probability of local infestations is a function of both percentage of land occupied by growing sorghum and prevailing winds. Thus, due to availability of sorghum, relatively later dates of initial infestation in the south will probably lead to infestations farther north that become established more quickly following the first appearance of aphids in the south. The model we present, in coordination with field monitoring schemes, could be applied as a forecasting tool in region-wide pest management systems.

中文翻译:

整合大气扩散和作物病虫害动态模型:将当地蚜虫侵扰的检测与谷物作物全区域入侵的预测联系起来

摘要 侵入性空气传播昆虫对自然资源和农业管理提出了重大挑战,因为它们可以快速传播很远的距离并跨越物理边界。现场监测和当地管理是预防和控制虫害的重要工具,但需要额外的协调才能在区域范围内运作。计算建模技术在模拟当地人口动态和捕捉入侵物种在区域范围内的传播方面非常有效。我们使用综合生态模型来模拟甘蔗蚜虫的局部和区域侵染动态,Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner)(半翅目:蚜科),在大平原南部到中部的高粱、双色高粱(L.)Moench(禾本科)上美国的。高粱上蚜虫种群的局部动态由空间明确的、基于个体的模型模拟,而区域蚜虫迁移由大气模型模拟,该模型计算惰性空气粒子(蚜虫)传输、扩散和沉积。模拟结果表明,南部初始侵染的时间会影响整个地区侵染的时空模式。局部感染的概率是高粱种植和盛行风所占据的土地百分比的函数。因此,由于高粱的供应,南方相对较晚的初始侵染日期可能会导致更远的北方侵染,并在南方蚜虫首次出现后更快地建立。我们提出的模型与现场监测计划相协调,
更新日期:2020-02-11
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