1. Tree death due to lightning influences tropical forest carbon cycling and tree community dynamics. However, the distribution of lightning damage among trees in forests remains poorly understood.
2. We developed models to predict direct and secondary lightning damage to trees based on tree size, crown exposure and local forest structure. We parameterized these models using data on the locations of lightning strikes and censuses of tree damage in strike zones, combined with drone‐based maps of tree crowns and censuses of all trees within a 50‐ha forest dynamics plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama.
3. The likelihood of a direct strike to a tree increased with larger exposed crown area and higher relative canopy position (emergent > canopy >>> subcanopy), whereas the likelihood of secondary lightning damage increased with tree diameter and proximity to neighbouring trees. The predicted frequency of lightning damage in this mature forest was greater for tree species with larger average diameters.
4. These patterns suggest that lightning influences forest structure and the global carbon budget by non‐randomly damaging large trees. Moreover, these models provide a framework for investigating the ecological and evolutionary consequences of lightning disturbance in tropical forests.
5. Synthesis. Our findings indicate that the distribution of lightning damage is stochastic at large spatial grain and relatively deterministic at smaller spatial grain (<15 m). Lightning is more likely to directly strike taller trees with large crowns and secondarily damage large neighbouring trees that are closest to the directly struck tree. The results provide a framework for understanding how lightning can affect forest structure, forest dynamics and carbon cycling. The resulting lightning risk model will facilitate informed investigations into the effects of lightning in tropical forests.

中文翻译：

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机械和经验支持的林木雷电风险模型

1. 雷击导致的树木死亡影响热带森林的碳循环和树木群落动态。但是，人们对森林中树木间雷电危害的分布知之甚少。
2. 我们开发了一些模型，根据树木大小，树冠暴露量和当地森林结构来预测对树木的直接和间接雷击伤害。我们使用雷击位置和罢工区树木损害普查的位置数据，结合巴拿马基于Barro Colorado Island的50公顷森林动态图上无人驾驶飞机的树冠地图和所有树木普查参数化了这些模型。
3. 树木裸露的树冠面积越大，相对树冠位置越高（紧急>树冠>>>次树冠），直接击中树木的可能性就会增加，而随着树木直径的增加和与邻近树木的接近，二次雷击的可能性就会增加。对于平均直径较大的树木，该成熟森林中雷击的预测频率更高。
4. 这些模式表明，雷电通过非随机地破坏大树而影响森林结构和全球碳收支。此外，这些模型为调查热带森林中雷电干扰的生态和进化后果提供了框架。
5. 综合。我们的发现表明，雷击伤害的分布在大空间粒子上是随机的，而在较小空间粒子（<15 m）上是相对确定的。闪电更有可能直接击中带有大树冠的高大树木，其次是破坏最靠近直接被击中的树木的大树木。结果为了解闪电如何影响森林结构，森林动态和碳循环提供了框架。由此产生的闪电风险模型将有助于对热带森林中闪电的影响进行知情调查。