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Combined climate change and nutrient load impacts on future habitats and eutrophication indicators in a eutrophic coastal sea
Limnology and Oceanography ( IF 4.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-16 , DOI: 10.1002/lno.11446 Iréne Wåhlström 1 , Anders Höglund 1 , Elin Almroth‐Rosell 1 , Brian R. MacKenzie 2 , Matthias Gröger 1, 3 , Kari Eilola 1 , Maris Plikshs 4 , Helén C. Andersson 1
Limnology and Oceanography ( IF 4.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-16 , DOI: 10.1002/lno.11446 Iréne Wåhlström 1 , Anders Höglund 1 , Elin Almroth‐Rosell 1 , Brian R. MacKenzie 2 , Matthias Gröger 1, 3 , Kari Eilola 1 , Maris Plikshs 4 , Helén C. Andersson 1
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Eutrophication and climate change will affect habitats of species and more generally, the structure and functioning of ecosystems. We used a three-dimensional, coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to investigate potential future changes in size and location of potential habitats of marine species during the 21 century in a large, eutrophicated brackish sea (the Baltic Sea, northern Europe). We conducted scenario projections under the combined impact of nutrient load and climate change. Possible future changes of the eutrophication state of this sea were also assessed through two policy-relevant indicators. The results imply a physiologically more stressful environment for marine species by the end of the 21 century: volumes of higher salinity water become more hypoxic/anoxic and the volumes of low salinity, oxic water increase. For example, these results impact and reduce cod reproductive habitats. The decrease is mainly climate change induced in the Baltic basins less directly influenced by inflows of saline, oxic water to the Baltic Sea (E Gotland and Gdansk Basins). In basins more directly influenced by such inflows (Arkona and Bornholm Basins), the combined effect from climate change and nutrient loads is of importance. The results for the eutrophication state indicators clearly indicate a more eutrophic sea than at present without a rigorous nutrient reduction policy, that is, the necessity to implement the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The multidisciplinary, multiscenario assessment strategy presented here provides a useful concept for the evaluation of impacts from cumulative stresses of changing climate and socioeconomic pressures on future eutrophication indicators and habitats of marine species. Climate change has already had an impact on coastal ocean ecosystems and hydrography (Richardson et al. 2012; Rhein et al. 2013; IPCC 2019). Likewise, eutrophication has been reported as a growing problem around the world, creating hypoxic (oxygen [O2] concentration of 0–2 mL L ) and anoxic (O2 concentration < 0 mL L, i.e., “negative oxygen,” which correspond to the amount of oxygen needed to oxidize the hydrogen sulfide) areas in coastal oceans (Breitburg et al. 2018), for example, in Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico, the South China Sea, the Black Sea, and the Baltic Sea (Rabalais et al. 2007; Murphy et al. 2011; Strokal and Kroeze 2013; Su et al. 2017; Meier et al. 2018c; Reusch et al. 2018; Murray et al. 2019). The decline in O2 concentration will most likely be further exacerbated by climate induced changes (Altieri and Gedan 2015; IPCC 2019). Climate models predict that areas with high precipitation will become even wetter in the future, especially in the Northern Hemisphere (Holopainen et al. 2016; IPCC 2019). Higher net precipitation increases river discharge, supplying more nutrients and freshwater to the sea. Consequently, eutrophication is accelerated due to the increased nutrient supply and primary production. This results in higher O2 consumption due to the decomposition of the increased biomass. Enhanced supply of freshwater decreases salinity, which may act to increase the stratification and could potentially decrease the vertical mixing of O2 saturated surface waters to depth. In addition, O2 dynamics will be affected by temperature-dependent biological rates and water solubility (Irby et al. 2018). The changes due to climate change and eutrophication are also seen in the projections for the Baltic Sea, for example, increased temperature and enhanced river discharge as the net precipitation over its catchment area increases (Eilola et al. 2012; Meier et al. 2012a,b; Neumann et al. 2012; Ryabchenko et al. 2016; Saraiva et al. 2019a,b). Because the spatial distribution of *Correspondence: irene.wahlstrom@smhi.se This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
更新日期：2020-04-16
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