Understanding species interactions and their effects on distributions is crucial for assessing the impacts of global change, particularly for invasive species. Co-occurrence models can help investigate these effects when interactions are likely given shared traits. For such an assemblage of invasive and native carnivorans, we examined how patterns of co-occurrence change across space and environmental gradients using a static multispecies occupancy model that accounts for imperfect detectability and models co-occurrence as a function of environmental variables, and also extended it to be temporally dynamic. We focused on invasive raccoons, which pose threats to humans and wildlife globally. In Japan, raccoons prey on many native taxa, but little is known about interactions with sympatric carnivorans. We searched for signals of competitive exclusion of native raccoon dogs (tanuki) and invasive masked palm civets by applying the model to detection data from a broad-scale trapping effort over 6 years. Forest cover was the strongest predictor of occupancy for individual species and raccoon co-occurrences, and raccoon occupancy probability increased with forest cover conditionally depending on the co-occurring carnivoran: only tanuki absence or civet presence had positive responses. However, tanuki occupancy probability increased with forest cover despite any co-occurrence. Thus, we found no evidence of competitive exclusion by raccoons, contrary to our expectations. As parts of the world with invasive raccoons can also have invasive tanuki, our findings may have broad management implications. The model we present should be useful for inferring signals of biotic interactions between species with low detectability over multi-year time frames.

了解物种之间的相互作用及其对分布的影响对于评估全球变化（尤其是对入侵物种）的影响至关重要。当交互可能具有共同的特征时，共现模型可以帮助调查这些影响。对于这种侵入性和天然食肉动物的集合，我们使用静态多物种占用模型（该模型考虑了不完善的可检测性，并根据环境变量对共现进行建模），研究了共现模式如何在空间和环境梯度之间变化。它在时间上是动态的。我们专注于侵入性浣熊，这些浣熊对全球的人类和野生动植物构成威胁。在日本，浣熊会捕食许多本地分类单元，但对与同伴食肉动物的互动知之甚少。我们通过将该模型应用于6年间大规模诱捕工作中的检测数据，搜索了竞争性排斥本地狗（tanuki）和侵入性蒙面棕榈科动物的信号。森林覆盖率是单个物种和浣熊共存的最强预测因子，而浣熊的占有率随森林覆盖率的增加而有条件地取决于共生的食肉动物：只有tanuki缺失或麝猫存在才有积极反应。但是，尽管同时发生，但狸木的占用率还是随森林覆盖而增加。因此，我们发现没有证据表明浣熊有竞争性排斥，这与我们的预期相反。由于世界上有侵入性浣熊的地方也可能具有侵入性狸猫，因此我们的发现可能对管理产生广泛的影响。