Non-native, invasive plants are projected to shift their ranges with climate change, creating hotspots of risk where a multitude of novel species may soon establish and spread. The Northeast U.S. is one such hotspot. However, because monitoring for novel species is costly, these range-shifting invasive plants need to be prioritized. Preventing negative impacts is a key goal of management, thus, comparing the potential impacts of range-shifting invasive species could inform this prioritization. Here, we adapted the environmental impacts classification for alien taxa protocol to evaluate potential impacts of 100 invasive plants that could establish either currently or by 2050 in the states of New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, or Rhode Island. We searched Web of Science for each species and identified papers reporting ecological, economic, human health, or agricultural impacts. We scored ecological impacts from 1 (‘minimal concern’) to 4 (‘major’) and socio-ecological impacts as present or absent. We evaluated 865 impact studies and categorized 20 species as high-impact, 36 as medium-impact, and 26 as low-impact. We further refined high-impact invasive species based on whether major impacts affect ecosystems found in Northeast U.S. and identified five high-priority species: Anthriscus caucalis, Arundo donax, Avena barbata, Ludwigia grandiflora, and Rubus ulmifolius. Additional research is needed for 18 data-deficient species, which had no studies reporting impacts. Identifying and prioritizing range-shifting invasive plants provides a unique opportunity for early detection and rapid response that targets future problem species before they can establish and spread. This research illustrates the feasibility of using impacts assessments on range-shifting invasive species in order to inform proactive policy and management.

预计非本地的入侵植物会随着气候变化而改变其范围，从而造成危险热点，许多新物种可能很快就会建立并传播。美国东北就是这样一个热点。但是，由于监测新物种的成本很高，因此需要优先考虑这些范围变化的入侵植物。预防负面影响是管理的主要目标，因此，比较范围变化的入侵物种的潜在影响可以为这种优先排序提供依据。在这里，我们针对外来生物分类协议修改了环境影响分类，以评估可能在纽约州，马萨诸塞州，康涅狄格州或罗德岛州当前或到2050年建立的100种入侵植物的潜在影响。我们在Web of Science中搜索了每种物种，并确定了报告生态，经济，人类健康或农业影响。我们对生态影响从1（“最小关注”）到4（“主要”）进行了评分，而对社会生态影响的评估为有无。我们评估了865个影响研究，并将20个物种归为高影响，36个为中等影响，26个为低影响。我们根据主要影响是否会影响美国东北部发现的生态系统，进一步完善了高影响力入侵物种，并确定了五种高优先级物种：炭疽热炭疽病，Arundo donax，Avena barbata，Ludwigia grandiflora和Rubus ulmifolius。需要对18个数据不足的物种进行额外的研究，尚无报告影响的研究。确定范围转移的入侵植物并确定其优先级，为早期发现和快速响应提供了独特的机会，可以针对未来的问题物种建立和传播它们。这项研究说明了对范围变化的入侵物种进行影响评估以指导积极的政策和管理的可行性。