Reliability analysis has been advocated to account for the uncertainty in geometric design and to evaluate the risk associated with various design options. Most of the previous studies using reliability-analysis in highway design evaluated only one-mode of noncompliance. This study assesses the performance of horizontal curves using a system of multi-modal noncompliance (insufficient sight distance, vehicle skidding, and vehicle rollover). Five case studies of a highway in British Columbia are considered. Two approaches were used: (1) second-order reliability-bounds with FORM analysis (First-Order Reliability Method), (2) Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS). A calibrated design chart that accommodates heavy-trucks on horizontal-curves with sharp-radii is provided. The results show that the differences in the system probability of noncompliance between one-mode and system of multi-modes of noncompliance are more pronounced for heavy-trucks. Results also show that the probability of noncompliance associated with vehicle rollover is significantly affected by the stability-ratio compared to height-ratio and roll-rate.

中文翻译：

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系统可靠性作为水平曲线安全性的替代衡量标准：方法论和案例研究

提倡可靠性分析来解释几何设计中的不确定性并评估与各种设计选项相关的风险。以前在公路设计中使用可靠性分析的大多数研究只评估了一种不合规模式。本研究使用多模式不合规系统（视距不足、车辆打滑和车辆侧翻）评估水平曲线的性能。考虑了不列颠哥伦比亚省高速公路的五个案例研究。使用了两种方法：(1) 二阶可靠性界限与 FORM 分析（一阶可靠性方法），(2) 蒙特卡罗模拟 (MCS)。提供了一个校准的设计图表，可在具有锐利半径的水平曲线上容纳重型卡车。结果表明，对于重型卡车，单模式和多模式违规系统之间的系统违规概率差异更为明显。结果还表明，与高度比和侧倾率相比，稳定性比显着影响与车辆侧翻相关的违规概率。