Statistical analysis and predictability of inter-urban highway traffic flows: a case study in Heilongjiang Province, China,Transportmetrica A: Transport Science

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Statistical analysis and predictability of inter-urban highway traffic flows: a case study in Heilongjiang Province, China
Transportmetrica A: Transport Science ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2020.1720039
Baoyu Hu ₁ , Yanli Ma ₂ , Yulong Pei ₁ , Wei Gao ₁

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In this study, the statistical properties and predictability of inter-urban highway traffic flows are investigated in a practical case in Heilongjiang Province, China. We build a topology graph of the inter-urban highway traffic flows and analyze its topological structure using the degree distribution. The production and the attraction of traffic zones have a high level of heterogeneity and are strongly correlated with the topology of the inter-urban highway traffic flows. We present the probability distributions of the inter-urban highway traffic and travel distances, which can be fitted by a power-law function and a two-term Gaussian model, respectively. We also present four prediction models for the inter-urban highway traffic flows. The first three models are existing models, namely the gravity model, radiation model, and population-weighted opportunities model. The fourth is a novel multifactor-weighted benefits model that considers population, GDP, and area. We also introduce the concept of the breakthrough threshold to make our model more accurate. A comparative study shows that our model is more suitable for predicting the inter-urban highway traffic flows than the other three models, whether predicting accuracy, cost, or efficiency.

更新日期：2020-01-01

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