Abstract The question of European hydroclimate anomaly associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is revisited by composite analyses on data from Dai et al.’s Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), and a 10-member CESM coupled-model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulations. This study benefits from exceptionally long or large samples in OWDA and CESM-LME. The averagely strong El Niño (1–2 standard deviations, or about one event per decade) is correlated to wet condition in western and southern Europe, and dry condition in Northern Europe; this result agrees with previous studies and thus provides a further support to this scenario. We also find in OWDA that extremely strong El Niño (>2 standard deviation, or about one event every 70–100 years) is related to a dry condition in western Europe. This suggests that the extreme El Niño impact in western Europe is opposite, or at least not linear, to that for the averagely strong El Niño. The impact of extreme El Niño does not appear to be reproduced by the LME, and will require further analyses on other climate reconstructions and models data.

中文翻译：

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强和极端厄尔尼诺现象对欧洲水文气候的影响

摘要 通过对 Dai 等人的帕尔默干旱严重程度指数、旧世界干旱地图集 (OWDA) 和 10 个成员的数据进行综合分析，重新审视了与厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动 (ENSO) 相关的欧洲水文气候异常问题。 CESM 耦合模型 Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) 模拟。这项研究受益于 OWDA 和 CESM-LME 中超长或超大的样本。平均强厄尔尼诺现象（1-2 个标准差，或大约每十年发生一次）与西欧和南欧的潮湿条件以及北欧的干燥条件相关；这一结果与之前的研究一致，因此为这种情况提供了进一步的支持。我们还在 OWDA 中发现，极强的厄尔尼诺现象（>2 标准差，或大约每 70-100 年发生一次）与西欧的干旱状况有关。这表明西欧极端厄尔尼诺现象的影响与平均强厄尔尼诺现象相反，或者至少不是线性的。LME 似乎无法再现极端厄尔尼诺现象的影响，需要对其他气候重建和模型数据进行进一步分析。