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The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
Earthquake Spectra ( IF 5 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-28 , DOI: 10.1177/8755293019878199
Mark D. Petersen 1 , Allison M. Shumway 1 , Peter M. Powers 1 , Charles S. Mueller 1 , Morgan P. Moschetti 1 , Arthur D. Frankel 2 , Sanaz Rezaeian 1 , Daniel E. McNamara 1 , Nico Luco 1 , Oliver S. Boyd 1 , Kenneth S. Rukstales 1 , Kishor S. Jaiswal 1 , Eric M. Thompson 1 , Susan M. Hoover 1 , Brandon S. Clayton 1 , Edward H. Field 1 , Yuehua Zeng 1
Affiliation  

During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median estimates, modified assessments of the associated epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities, and new soil amplification factors; (3) in the western United States (WUS), amplified shaking estimates of long-period ground motions at sites overlying deep sedimentary basins in the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Salt Lake City areas were incorporated; and (4) in the conterminous United States, seismic hazard is calculated for 22 periods (from 0.01 to 10 s) and 8 uniform VS30 maps (ranging from 1500 to 150 m/s). We also include a description of updated computer codes and modeling details. Results show increased ground shaking in many (but not all) locations across the CEUS (up to ~30%), as well as near the four urban areas overlying deep sedimentary basins in the WUS (up to ~50%). Due to population growth and these increased hazard estimates, more people live or work in areas of high or moderate seismic hazard than ever before, leading to higher risk of undesirable consequences from forecasted future ground shaking.

中文翻译:

美国国家地震灾害模型 2018 年更新:模型概述和影响

2017-2018 年,美国本土国家地震灾害模型更新如下:(1) 纳入更新的地震活动目录,其中包括 2013 年至 2017 年发生的新地震;(2) 在美国中部和东部 (CEUS),更新了新的地面运动模型,其中包括更新的中值估计、相关认知不确定性和随机变异的修正评估以及新的土壤放大因子;(3) 在美国西部 (WUS),在洛杉矶、旧金山、西雅图和盐湖城地区上覆深沉积盆地的地点,放大了对长期地面运动的震动估计;(4) 在美国本土,地震危险度计算为 22 个周期(从 0. 01 到 10 s)和 8 个统一的 VS30 地图(范围从 1500 到 150 m/s)。我们还包括更新的计算机代码和建模细节的描述。结果显示,在整个 CEUS 的许多(但不是全部)位置(高达约 30%)以及在 WUS 上覆深层沉积盆地的四个城市地区附近(高达约 50%),地面震动增加。由于人口增长和这些增加的危险估计,比以往任何时候都更多的人在高或中度地震危险地区生活或工作,从而导致预测的未来地面震动产生不良后果的风险更高。以及在 WUS 上覆深层沉积盆地的四个城市地区附近(高达约 50%)。由于人口增长和这些增加的危险估计,比以往任何时候都更多的人在高或中度地震危险地区生活或工作,从而导致预测的未来地面震动产生不良后果的风险更高。以及在 WUS 上覆深层沉积盆地的四个城市地区附近(高达约 50%)。由于人口增长和这些增加的危险估计,比以往任何时候都更多的人在高或中度地震危险地区生活或工作,从而导致预测的未来地面震动产生不良后果的风险更高。
更新日期:2019-11-28
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