Abstract The goal of the present study was to compare the relative contribution of different cognitive abilities and preferences to superior decision making. Additionally, we aimed to test whether skilled decision makers have better and more sophisticated long-term memory representations of personally meaningful risky situations. A large sample from the general population completed a series of tasks and questionnaires measuring cognitive abilities and preferences (fluid intelligence, cognitive reflection, and multiple numeric competencies: statistical numeracy, subjective numeracy, approximate numeracy) and decision making outcomes (a set of monetary lotteries and a self-report inventory measuring success in avoiding negative decision outcomes in real-life). We also designed a memory task in which participants were instructed to discriminate between decision outcomes presented in the first stage of the study and distractors. We found that multiple numeric competencies predicted decision making beyond fluid intelligence and cognitive reflection. Especially, the acuity of symbolic-number mapping (a measure of approximate numeracy) was the most robust single predictor of superior decision making. Moreover, a combination of different cognitive abilities contributed to a better understanding of decision outcomes. For example, superior decision making in monetary lotteries was best predicted by approximate numeracy, statistical numeracy, and fluid intelligence, while avoiding negative decision outcomes in real-life was best predicted by approximate and subjective numeracy. Finally, we demonstrated that people with high approximate numeracy had better memory for decision outcomes and produced more vivid mental representations, suggesting that memory processes can be crucial to superior decision making.

中文翻译：

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多种数字能力可预测超越流体智力和认知反射的决策结果

摘要 本研究的目的是比较不同认知能力和偏好对卓越决策的相对贡献。此外，我们旨在测试熟练的决策者是否对个人有意义的风险情况有更好、更复杂的长期记忆表征。来自一般人群的大量样本完成了一系列测量认知能力和偏好（流体智力、认知反思和多种数字能力：统计计算、主观计算、近似计算）和决策结果（一组货币彩票）的任务和问卷以及衡量在现实生活中避免负面决策结果的成功的自我报告清单）。我们还设计了一项记忆任务，要求参与者区分研究第一阶段的决策结果和干扰因素。我们发现，多种数字能力可以预测流体智力和认知反思之外的决策。特别是，符号数字映射的敏锐度（近似计算的度量）是卓越决策的最可靠的单一预测指标。此外，不同认知能力的结合有助于更好地理解决策结果。例如，近似算术、统计算术和流体智力可以最好地预测货币彩票中的卓越决策，而避免现实生活中的负面决策结果最好通过近似算术和主观算术来预测。最后，