The project management field has the imperative to increase the success probability of projects. Experts have developed several Project Management Maturity (PMM) models to assess project management practices and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks models that allow experts to correlate the measured maturity with the expected probability of success. The present paper develops a general framework and a method to estimate the impact of PMM on project performance. It uses Bayesian networks to formalize project management experts’ knowledge and to extract knowledge from a database of past projects. An industrial case concerning large projects in the oil and gas industry is used to illustrate the application of the method to reduce the risk of project cost (or budget) overruns.

必须在项目管理领域增加项目的成功概率。专家们已经开发了几种项目管理成熟度（PMM）模型，以评估项目管理实践并改善项目成果。但是，当前的文献缺乏使专家能够将测得的成熟度与预期成功概率相关联的模型。本文开发了一个通用框架和一种方法来估计PMM对项目绩效的影响。它使用贝叶斯网络来规范项目管理专家的知识，并从过去的项目数据库中提取知识。以涉及石油和天然气行业大型项目的工业案例来说明该方法的应用，以减少项目成本（或预算）超支的风险。