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The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change
Nature ( IF 64.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-08 , DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9
Christopher H Trisos 1, 2, 3 , Cory Merow 4 , Alex L Pigot 5
Affiliation  

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon1,2,3. However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 °C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species; however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 °C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.



中文翻译:

气候变化导致生态突然破坏的预计时间

随着人为气候变化的持续,生物多样性面临的风险将随着时间的推移而增加,未来的预测表明,全球生物多样性的潜在灾难性损失即将到来1,2,3. 然而,我们对这种气候驱动的生物多样性破坏何时以及如何突然发生的理解是有限的,因为生物多样性预测通常侧重于未来的个别快照。在这里,我们使用 30,000 多种海洋和陆地物种范围内的温度和降水的年度预测(从 1850 年到 2100 年)来估计它们暴露于潜在危险气候条件的时间。我们预计,由于气候变化,未来生态组合的破坏将是突然的,因为在任何给定的生态组合中,大多数物种暴露于超出其已实现生态位限制的气候条件几乎同时发生。在高排放情景下(代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 8.5),这种突然暴露事件在 2030 年之前在热带海洋中开始,到 2050 年蔓延到热带森林和高纬度地区。如果全球变暖保持在 2°C 以下,预计全球不到 2% 的组合将经历超过 20% 的突然暴露事件它们的组成物种;然而,风险随着变暖幅度而加速,在 4°C 时威胁到 15% 的组合,在保护区和未保护区的风险水平相似。这些结果突出了气候变化带来的突然和严重的生物多样性丧失的迫在眉睫的风险,并为预测这些事件可能发生的时间和地点提供了一个框架。预计全球不到 2% 的组合会经历超过 20% 的组成物种的突然暴露事件;然而,风险随着变暖幅度而加速,在 4°C 时威胁到 15% 的组合,在保护区和未保护区的风险水平相似。这些结果突出了气候变化带来的突然和严重的生物多样性丧失的迫在眉睫的风险,并为预测这些事件可能发生的时间和地点提供了一个框架。预计全球不到 2% 的组合会经历超过 20% 的组成物种的突然暴露事件;然而,风险随着变暖幅度而加速,在 4°C 时威胁到 15% 的组合,在保护区和未保护区的风险水平相似。这些结果突出了气候变化带来的突然和严重的生物多样性丧失的迫在眉睫的风险,并为预测这些事件可能发生的时间和地点提供了一个框架。

更新日期:2020-04-08
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