The increasing frequency of extreme droughts and flash floods in recent years due to climate change has increased the interest in sustainable water use and efficient water resource management. Because the water resource sector is closely related to human activities and affected by interactions between the humanities and social sciences, there is a need for interdisciplinary research that can consider various elements, such as society and the economy. This study elucidates relationships within the social and hydrological systems and quantitatively analyzes the effects of a multi-purpose dam on the target society using a system dynamics model. A causal loop was used to identify causal relationships between the social and hydrological components of the target area, and a simulation model was constructed using the system dynamics technique. Additionally, climate change and socio-economic scenarios were applied to analyze the future effects of the multi-purpose dam on population change, the regional economy, water use, and flood damage prevention in the target area. The model proved reliable in predicting socio-economic changes in the target area and can be used to make decisions about efficient water resource management and water-resource-related facility planning.

中文翻译：

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使用系统动力学模型分析多用途大坝的有效性

近年来，由于气候变化，极端干旱和山洪暴发的频率越来越高，这增加了人们对可持续用水和有效水资源管理的兴趣。由于水资源部门与人类活动密切相关，受人文社会科学相互作用的影响，因此需要考虑社会和经济等多种因素的跨学科研究。本研究阐明了社会和水文系统内的关系，并使用系统动力学模型定量分析了多用途大坝对目标社会的影响。因果循环用于识别目标区域的社会和水文成分之间的因果关系，并使用系统动力学技术构建模拟模型。此外，还应用气候变化和社会经济情景来分析多用途大坝对目标区域人口变化、区域经济、水资源利用和防洪灾害的未来影响。该模型在预测目标区域的社会经济变化方面被证明是可靠的，可用于做出有关高效水资源管理和与水资源相关的设施规划的决策。