In this work, we evaluated the quasi‐realistic ionosphere forecasting capability by an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ionosphere and thermosphere data assimilation algorithm. The National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model is used as the background model in the system. The slant total electron contents (TECs) from global International Global Navigation Satellite Systems Service ground‐based receivers and from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate are assimilated into the system, and the ionosphere is then predicted in advance during the quiet interval of 23 to 27 March 2010. The predicted ionosphere vertical TEC (VTEC) and the critical frequency foF₂ are validated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology VTEC and global ionosondes network, respectively. We found that the ionosphere forecast quality could be enhanced by optimizing the thermospheric neutral components via the EnKF method. The ionosphere electron density forecast accuracy can be improved by at least 10% for 24 hr. Furthermore, the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Global Ultraviolet Imager (TIMED/GUVI) [O/N₂] observations are used to validate the predicted thermosphere [O/N₂]. The validation shows that the [O/N₂] optimized by EnKF has better agreement with the TIMED/GUVI observation. This study further demonstrates the validity of EnKF in enhancing the ionospheric forecast capability in addition to our previous observing system simulation experiments by He et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA026554).

中文翻译：

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集成卡尔曼滤波数据同化算法对准真实电离层预测的评估

在这项工作中，我们通过集合卡尔曼滤波器（EnKF）电离层和热层数据同化算法评估了准现实电离层的预测能力。国家大气研究中心热层电离层电动力学通用循环模型被用作系统的背景模型。来自全球国际全球导航卫星系统服务地面接收器以及气象，电离层和气候星座观测系统的倾斜总电子含量（TEC）被吸收到系统中，然后在安静间隔内提前预测电离层的电离层垂直TEC（VTEC）和临界频率foF _2为2010年3月23日至27日。分别由麻省理工学院VTEC和全球离子探空仪网络验证。我们发现，通过EnKF方法优化热圈中性成分可以提高电离层预报质量。在24小时内，电离层电子密度的预测精度可以提高至少10％。此外，热圈，电离层，中层能量和动力学/全球紫外线成像仪（TIMED / GUVI）[O / N ₂ ]观测值用于验证预测的热圈[O / N ₂ ]。验证表明[O / N ₂通过EnKF优化的）与TIMED / GUVI观测值具有更好的一致性。除He等人先前的观测系统模拟实验外，本研究还证明了EnKF在增强电离层预报能力方面的有效性。（2019，https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA026554）。