Estimates of quantities needed to plan invasive species control, such as population size, are always uncertain; this is an issue that can become a problem when mishandled in ecological science and its communication. The complexities of incorporating uncertainty into sophisticated decision‐support tools may be a barrier to their use by decision makers, leading to decisions being made without due regard to uncertainty and risking misplaced certainty of predicted outcomes. We summarise ways in which uncertainty has been incorporated into and used to advise decisions on the management of invasive non‐native species and other problem species, and offer a simple conceptual model for accommodating and using uncertainty at the planning stage. We also demonstrate how frequently uncertainty has been misused and miscommunicated in the wildlife management literature. We contend that uncertainty in estimates of natural quantities must be acknowledged, can inform decisions and can be made to derive decisions, and should not be ignored if invasive species policy is to be delivered effectively. Uncertainty must be communicated thoroughly and correctly by scientists if decision makers are to understand its consequences for planning and resourcing control programmes.

中文翻译：

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使用和传达不确定性以有效控制入侵的非本地物种

计划入侵物种控制所需的数量估计，例如种群规模，总是不确定的；这是一个在生态科学及其传播中处理不当可能成为问题的问题。将不确定性纳入复杂的决策支持工具的复杂性可能是决策者使用这些工具的障碍，导致在做出决策时没有适当考虑不确定性，并冒着错误地确定预测结果的风险。我们总结了将不确定性纳入并用于为入侵非本地物种和其他问题物种的管理决策提供建议的方式，并提供了一个简单的概念模型，用于在规划阶段适应和使用不确定性。我们还展示了不确定性在野生动物管理文献中被误用和误传的频率。我们认为，必须承认自然数量估计中的不确定性，可以为决策提供信息，并可以做出决策，如果要有效实施入侵物种政策，则不应忽视。如果决策者要了解不确定性对规划和资源控制计划的影响，科学家必须彻底和正确地传达不确定性。