Lakes—quintessential features of Earth's surface prized from perspectives of water security, aquatic ecosystems, and recreation alike—are shrinking in water‐limited regions of all of Earth's inhabited continents. Here we assessed Landsat‐derived long‐term decrease in global lake area relative to historical lake extent aiming to determine the role of recent Anthropocene levels of irrigated agriculture in the global phenomenon of lake desiccation. As of 2015, 11% (1.8 · 10⁵km²) of global lake area has already been lost, primarily due to increased water consumption in support of irrigated agriculture in endorheic basins within water‐limited regions. However, current levels of irrigated agriculture portend substantial additional shrinkage of global lakes before reaching new equilibria with present‐day inflows, with an additional 60‐130% increase in endorheic lake loss anticipated. The time required for shrinking lakes to attain new equilibria ranges from decades to centuries depending on lake hyposometry. Even a small decrease in lake area can portend lake transition from exorheic to endorheic and dramatic reductions in water quality. Thus, lake area changes severely understate the perilous condition of global lakes. The watershed area contributing to shrinking (endorheic and exorheic) lakes accounts for 18% of Earth's land area, far too large for the irrigated agriculture therein to be transferred elsewhere in order to save these lakes, though continued developments in the efficiency of water consumption in agriculture and urban areas can save significant quantities of water. This suggests that global lake shrinkage may be a harbinger signaling mankind having exceeded Earth's sustainable carrying capacity.

中文翻译：

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在缺水的景观中，进行人类世间的交流：将湖泊用于灌溉农业

从水安全，水生生态系统和休闲等角度看，湖泊是地球表面的典型特征。在所有人类居住的水域有限的地区，湖泊正在萎缩。在这里，我们评估了相对于历史湖泊范围，Landsat得出的全球湖泊面积的长期减少量，目的是确定近期人类灌溉的农业世代水平在全球湖泊干燥现象中的作用。截至2015年，11％（1.8·10 ⁵ km ²）全球湖泊面积已经丧失，这主要是由于用水量增加，以支持缺水地区内滴灌流域的灌溉农业。但是，当前的灌溉农业水平预示着全球湖泊将进一步大量萎缩，然后才能达到目前的流入量新的平衡，预计内吸性湖泊损失还会增加60-130％。湖泊收缩达到新的平衡所需要的时间从数十年到几个世纪不等，这取决于湖泊的测渗法。即使湖泊面积的小幅减少，也预示着湖水从溢洪到溢洪的转变以及水质的急剧下降。因此，湖泊面积的变化严重低估了全球湖泊的危险状况。流域面积导致湖泊（内陆和外陆）萎缩，占地球总面积的18％土地面积太大，以至于其中的灌溉农业无法转移到其他地方以保存这些湖泊，尽管农业和城市用水效率的持续发展可以节省大量的水。这表明全球湖泊的萎缩可能预示着人类已经超过了地球的可持续承载能力。