Abstract Earthquakes are frequent in the Himalayas and almost all moderate to strong earthquakes have caused enormous losses of lives and property in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Several historical earthquakes depicted that considerable loss was attributed to liquefaction induced failure in structures and infrastructures. Existing liquefaction studies have mostly used deterministic approach to obtain the factor of safety against liquefaction. Thus, to update the conventional deterministic liquefaction analysis results, this study performs probabilistic seismic liquefaction hazard assessment of Kathmandu valley considering wide range of earthquake magnitudes and four return periods: 73, 475, 2475, and 5000 years. Liquefaction probabilities for 88 locations across Kathmandu Valley are estimated and compared with the historical occurrence to validate the results. The liquefaction hazard maps for all four return periods are prepared for all the earthquake magnitudes for 1.5 m, 3 m, 4.5 m, and 6 m depths. The sum of findings highlights that the central valley, and eastern and western fringes have higher liquefaction probabilities than the other parts.

中文翻译：

---

尼泊尔加德满都谷地的概率地震液化危险评估

摘要 喜马拉雅山脉地震频发，几乎所有的中强地震都给尼泊尔加德满都谷地造成了巨大的生命财产损失。几次历史地震表明，相当大的损失归因于液化引起的结构和基础设施故障。现有的液化研究大多采用确定性方法来获得防止液化的安全系数。因此，为了更新传统的确定性液化分析结果，本研究对加德满都谷地进行概率地震液化危险性评估，考虑范围广泛的地震震级和四个重现期：73、475、2475 和 5000 年。估计加德满都谷地 88 个地点的液化概率，并与历史事件进行比较以验证结果。为 1.5 m、3 m、4.5 m 和 6 m 深度的所有地震震级准备了所有四个重现期的液化危险图。研究结果的总和突出显示，中央山谷以及东部和西部边缘的液化概率高于其他部分。