This letter investigates how to identify the marginal bottleneck, which is defined as the constraint most likely to be violated with the increasing wind generation uncertainty of power system in real-time dispatch. The presented method takes the correlation of wind power prediction error (WPPE) into account, leading to an ellipsoidal formulation of wind power generation region (WGR). Based on constructed WGR, the identification procedure is formulated as a max-max-min problem, which is solved by the algorithm based on iteration linear program with the proposed method to select appropriate initial points of WPPE. Finally, two cases are tested, demonstrating the efficacy and efficiency of the procedure to identify marginal bottleneck.

中文翻译：

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考虑相关风电预测误差的电力系统边际瓶颈识别

这封信探讨了如何识别边缘瓶颈，该边缘瓶颈被定义为在实时调度中随着电力系统风力发电不确定性的增加而最有可能违反的约束。提出的方法考虑了风能预测误差（WPPE）的相关性，从而形成了风能发电区域（WGR）的椭圆形式。基于构造的WGR，将识别过程公式化为最大-最大-最小问题，该问题通过基于迭代线性程序的算法通过所提出的方法来选择合适的WPPE初始点来解决。最后，对两个案例进行了测试，证明了识别边缘瓶颈的方法的有效性和效率。