In this paper, 106 active regions (ARs) in the visible solar hemisphere in solar cycle 24 whose maximum sunspot groups’ areas were larger than 400 µh were selected. The association of their flare index (Iflare), largest flare magnitude (M_flare), and fastest coronal mass ejection (CME) velocity (V_CME) with the vector magnetic field parameters were examined, and attempts were made to predict I_flare, M_flare, and V_CME using the vector magnetograms. I_flare and M_flare were found to have a good correlation with the total photospheric free magnetic energy density (E_free), the length of the magnetic neutral line with a steep horizontal magnetic gradient (L_NL), and the area with strong magnetic shear (A_ψ). I_flare and M_flare were also found to have a best correlation with E_free. However, V_CME displayed a moderate correlation with these three magnetic field parameters with a best correlation with A_ψ. Thus, E_free and A_ψ appear to be the best parameters that can be used to predict I_flare (M_flare) and V_CME, respectively. Hence, the multiple linear regression fit is proposed more suitable to predict I_flare and M_flare because of the stronger forecasts obtained than those by the linear fit with one magnetic field parameter for I_flare and M_flare. However, the V_CME forecasts are better obtained through the linear fit with A_ψ. The majority of the ARs without any CMEs never produced any flare larger than X1.0 while having a relatively lower E_free, shorter L_NL, and smaller A_ψ. This suggests that the larger the largest flare in an AR is, the faster the fastest CME produced by the AR will be.

中文翻译：

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使用矢量磁图预测耀斑指数和CME速度的可能性

在本文中，我们选择了太阳活动周期24中可见太阳半球中的106个活动区域（AR），这些活动区域的最大黑子组面积大于400 µh。研究了其耀斑指数（I耀斑），最大耀斑量（M_耀斑）和最快日冕物质抛射（CME）速度（V _CME）与矢量磁场参数的关联，并尝试预测I_耀斑，M _flare和V _CME使用矢量磁图。我_耀斑和M_耀斑被发现有与总光球自由磁性能量密度的良好的相关性（ë_免费），具有陡峭的水平磁场梯度（磁中性线的长度大号_NL）中，用强磁性剪切（面积甲_ψ）。还发现I_耀斑和M_耀斑与E _free的相关性最好。然而，V _CME显示与这三个磁场参数中度相关与具有最佳相关甲_ψ。因此，ê_自由和一个_ψ似乎是分别可用来预测I_耀斑（M _flare）和V _CME的最佳参数。因此，提出多元线性回归拟合更适合于预测I_耀斑和M_耀斑，因为与具有针对I_耀斑和M_耀斑的一个磁场参数的线性拟合相比，获得的预测更强。然而，V _CME预测是通过更好的线性拟合与获得甲_ψ。没有任何的CME多数AR的从未产生的任何杂散光比X1.0较大而具有相对较低ë_自由，更短的大号_NL，和更小的甲_ψ。这表明，AR中最大的耀斑越大，AR产生的最快CME越快。