Abstract Urban land covers affect the thermal characteristics of the city, such as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, potentially increasing energy demand to maintain comfortable indoor and outdoor temperatures. As the land patterns change, the capacity of the landscape to regulate the UHI can change. The aim of this paper is to explore how simulating land cover changes (LCC) may affect UHI using an ecosystem service matrix approach. A LCC model, illustrated in the case study of Lisbon, Portugal, was implemented to estimate the UHI effects over time starting from the modelling of land cover changes associated with the supply of local climate regulation service. Our results show that the capacity of urban landscape to mitigate the UHI effect has decreased since 1990, and will continue to decrease slightly until 2022 although more smoothly than between 1990 and 2000. This is because no substantial land cover changes have occurred after 2000 that required the transition between highest to lowest ecosystem service supplier landscapes. The proposed modelling approach may be refined and used to aiding the decision making process for urban planners in the placement of built structures and green spaces that have the capacity to regulate local climate.

中文翻译：

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模拟城市土地覆盖变化与当地气候调节之间的关系以估计城市热岛效应

摘要 城市土地覆盖影响城市的热特性，例如城市热岛 (UHI) 效应，可能会增加能源需求以维持舒适的室内和室外温度。随着土地格局的变化，景观调节 UHI 的能力也会发生变化。本文的目的是探索模拟土地覆盖变化 (LCC) 如何使用生态系统服务矩阵方法影响 UHI。在葡萄牙里斯本的案例研究中说明了 LCC 模型，该模型从与当地气候调节服务供应相关的土地覆盖变化建模开始，用于估计 UHI 随时间的影响。我们的结果表明，自 1990 年以来，城市景观减轻 UHI 效应的能力有所下降，2022 年之前将继续小幅下降，但比 1990 年和 2000 年之间更为平稳。这是因为 2000 年之后没有发生需要从最高生态系统服务供应商景观到最低生态系统服务供应商景观过渡的实质性土地覆盖变化。拟议的建模方法可以改进并用于帮助城市规划者的决策过程，以安置能够调节当地气候的建筑结构和绿色空间。