Abstract The Campania region of southern Italy, dominated by Mount Vesuvius, is an enduring volcanic landscape which hosts a wealth of detailed information about human responses to past eruptions. This research taps into rich archaeological, geological, and historical data to bring together the past, present and future of Mount Vesuvius and the populations surrounding it. Records from the Avellino eruption (ca. 1900 BCE), and the Pompeii eruption (79 CE), their impacts, and associated social responses are examined here as two of the largest, most violent events of Vesuvius' eruptive history which impacted human populations. The social impacts of these eruptions are considered as valuable sources of information about worst-case-scenario events which should be utilized in contemporary risk management and emergency planning. The vulnerability and resilience of the Early Bronze Age and Roman societies who experienced the Avellino and Pompeii eruptions, respectively, are contrasted with potential responses of present Campanian communities to a hypothetical future eruption scenario. This work thus makes use of archaeological data from past disasters to engage with contemporary issues of emergency planning and risk management in the Vesuvius region of Southern Italy.

中文翻译：

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过去的喷发和未来的预测：分析古代对维苏威火山的反应以用于现代风险管理

摘要 意大利南部的坎帕尼亚地区以维苏威火山为主导，是一个持久的火山景观，其中包含有关人类对过去火山喷发反应的大量详细信息。这项研究利用丰富的考古、地质和历史数据，将维苏威火山及其周围人口的过去、现在和未来结合在一起。阿韦利诺火山喷发（约公元前 1900 年）和庞贝火山喷发（公元 79 年）的记录、它们的影响和相关的社会反应在这里被视为维苏威火山喷发历史上影响人类的两个最大、最暴力的事件。这些火山喷发的社会影响被认为是有关最坏情况情景事件的宝贵信息来源，应在当代风险管理和应急计划中加以利用。分别经历了阿韦利诺和庞贝火山喷发的青铜时代早期和罗马社会的脆弱性和复原力，与当前坎帕尼亚社区对假设的未来喷发情景的潜在反应形成了对比。因此，这项工作利用过去灾难的考古数据来处理意大利南部维苏威火山地区的当代应急计划和风险管理问题。