Abstract A New Paradigm is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA, not only from consideration of (a) the huge human losses experienced in the many recently destructive earthquakes worldwide; but also from (b) theoretical considerations of seismic wave generation and propagation phenomena through often non-homogeneous media within the earth's crust, particularly when large and more complex fault ruptures occur. The Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method, proposed some twenty years ago, is found to reliably and realistically simulate the wide suite of earthquake ground motions that may impact civil populations as well as their heritage buildings. The scenario-based NDSHA modeling technique is developed from comprehensive physical knowledge of: (i) the seismic source process; (ii) the propagation of earthquake waves; and (iii) their combined interactions with site effects. Thus, NDSHA effectively accounts for the tensor nature of earthquake ground motions: (a) formally described as the tensor product of the earthquake source functions and the Green's functions of the transmitting (pathway) medium; and (b) more informally described as mathematical arrays of numbers or functions (indices) “that transform according to certain rules under a change of coordinates.” Importantly, NDSHA therefore uses all available information about the spacial distribution of large magnitude earthquake phenomena, including: (a) Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) – which is based on seismic history and seismotectonics; and (b) geological and geophysical data. Thus it does not rely on scalar empirical ground motion attenuation models (GMPEs), as these are often both: (a) weakly constrained by available observations; and (b) fundamentally unable to account for the tensor nature of earthquake ground motions.

中文翻译：

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NDSHA：可靠地震危险性评估的新范式

摘要 RSHA 的可靠地震危害评估需要一个新的范式，这不仅是因为 (a) 在世界范围内最近发生的许多破坏性地震中经历了巨大的人员损失；但也来自 (b) 地震波通过地壳内通常非均质介质产生和传播现象的理论考虑，特别是当发生大的和更复杂的断层破裂时。大约 20 年前提出的新确定性地震灾害评估 (NDSHA) 方法被发现能够可靠且真实地模拟可能影响平民及其遗产建筑的广泛地震地面运动。基于场景的 NDSHA 建模技术是从以下综合物理知识发展而来的：(i) 震源过程；(ii) 地震波的传播；(iii) 它们与场地效应的综合相互作用。因此，NDSHA 有效地解释了地震地面运动的张量性质：（a）正式描述为地震源函数和传输（路径）介质的格林函数的张量积；(b) 更非正式地描述为数字或函数（索引）的数学数组，“在坐标变化下根据某些规则进行转换。” 重要的是，NDSHA 因此使用关于大地震现象空间分布的所有可用信息，包括： (a) 最大可信地震 (MCE)——它基于地震历史和地震构造；(b) 地质和地球物理数据。因此，它不依赖于标量经验地面运动衰减模型 (GMPE)，因为它们通常都是：(a) 受可用观测的弱约束；(b) 从根本上无法解释地震地面运动的张量性质。