Abstract The plan to shift towards renewable energy has recently become the central part of the energy policy on the power system in South Korea. The sudden shift towards renewable energy has raised questions regarding the reliability and flexibility of the power system. This paper proposes a research framework to evaluate the new policy in South Korea from various aspects using three simulation models in a series. The first optimal generation model finds the optimal electricity generation mix and provides the total generation cost and environmental impact of the given long-term capacity expansion plan. The other two simulation models assess the reliability and flexibility of power systems, respectively. Within the research framework, we introduce a new probabilistic index to quantitatively measure the flexibility. The results of applying the framework into the new policy show that the policy fails to guarantee the target reliability level and increases costs and emissions. Achieving target system reliability will require additional capacity, and system flexibility is very sensitive to the type of capacity added. If the Korean government decides to add more capacity, natural gas turbine power plants turn out to be a good option from the point of economic, environmental, and flexibility considerations.

中文翻译：

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转向可再生能源对韩国电力系统可靠性和灵活性的影响

摘要 转向可再生能源的计划最近已成为韩国电力系统能源政策的核心部分。向可再生能源的突然转变引发了对电力系统可靠性和灵活性的质疑。本文提出了一个研究框架，使用三个系列的模拟模型从各个方面评估韩国的新政策。第一个最优发电模型找到最优发电组合，并提供给定长期容量扩张计划的总发电成本和环境影响。另外两个仿真模型分别评估电力系统的可靠性和灵活性。在研究框架内，我们引入了一个新的概率指数来定量衡量灵活性。将该框架应用于新政策的结果表明，该政策未能保证目标可靠性水平，并增加了成本和排放。实现目标系统可靠性将需要额外的容量，而系统灵活性对添加的容量类型非常敏感。如果韩国政府决定增加产能，从经济、环境和灵活性方面考虑，天然气涡轮发电厂将成为一个不错的选择。