Abstract Seismic risk of buildings is of great concern to public administration, insurance companies and building inhabitants, as well as structural engineers. This study developed a method to estimate seismic risk to unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings based on the use of binary logistic regression on a large database of 543 URM buildings with detailed seismic assessment analysis. The proposed method considers number of stories, type of slab system, vertical irregularities, visual damage, type of masonry material, typical story height and typical plan area as basic estimation variables. These variables have been assigned to some penalty scores depending on the coefficients derived from the binary logistic regression analysis. In total, 443 buildings from the database were used to generate penalty scores, and 100 buildings were reserved for testing of the proposed method. The correct overall estimation rates of the proposed method for the database (443 buildings) and the test database (100 buildings) were determined as approximately 95% and 86%, respectively.

中文翻译：

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砌体结构区域风险分布快速筛选方法

摘要 建筑物的地震风险是公共管理部门、保险公司和建筑居民以及结构工程师非常关注的问题。本研究基于对包含 543 座 URM 建筑物的大型数据库以及详细的地震评估分析使用二元逻辑回归，开发了一种估计无钢筋砌体 (URM) 建筑物地震风险的方法。该方法将层数、楼板系统类型、垂直不规则、视觉损伤、砌体材料类型、典型层高和典型平面面积作为基本估计变量。根据从二元逻辑回归分析得出的系数，这些变量已分配给一些惩罚分数。总共使用了数据库中的 443 座建筑物来生成罚分，并且保留了 100 座建筑物用于测试所提出的方法。对于数据库（443 座建筑物）和测试数据库（100 座建筑物），所提出方法的正确总体估计率分别确定为大约 95% 和 86%。