Population decline is a major issue impacting environmental sustainability, economic growth and social well-being. Although earlier studies evaluated demographic factors, social forces and economic aspects associated with population decline in Europe, the role of territorial factors was less considered when investigating the spatial linkages between rural depopulation and the local context. As demographic patterns are the result of past dynamics depending on place-specific factors, this study hypothesizes that (time-invariant) territorial characteristics (altitude, geographical area, proximity to the sea, and urban hierarchy) are important drivers of the spatial variability in depopulation rates on a local scale. To verify this assumption, changes over time (1981–2011) in resident populations of Italian municipalities were investigated and a regression model aimed at identifying the relevant factors shaping the population decline in Italy was run separately for three decades (1981–1991, 1991–2001, 2001–2011) with depopulation rate as the dependent variable. Model estimation was based on a system of simultaneous equations where the dependent variable at time t is an explanatory variable of the model at a subsequent time (t + 1). Results show that basic territorial factors – and especially altitude - impacted significantly on local-scale depopulation rates. North-south differences in population decline emerged more clearly in the last decade. Municipalities with a declining population at a given time were more likely to experience depopulation also in the subsequent decade. These findings highlight the relevant role of territorial factors in shaping depopulation across Italy and the importance of a spatially explicit analysis of demographic dynamics for local development research and policy.

人口下降是影响环境可持续性，经济增长和社会福祉的主要问题。尽管较早的研究评估了欧洲人口减少相关的人口因素，社会力量和经济因素，但在调查农村人口与当地环境之间的空间联系时，并未考虑领土因素的作用。由于人口统计学特征是过去动态的结果，取决于特定地点的因素，因此本研究假设（时不变）的地域特征（海拔，地理区域，邻近海域和城市等级）是该地区空间变异的重要驱动力。局部人口减少率。为了验证这一假设，调查了意大利各市常住人口随时间的变化（1981-2011年），并分别运行了三十年（1981-1991年，1991-2001年，2001-2011年）的回归模型，以识别影响意大利人口下降的相关因素），人口减少率作为因变量。模型估计基于联立方程组，其中时间因变量t是模型在随后时间（t  +1）的解释变量。结果表明，基本的领土因素，尤其是海拔高度，对当地人口的减少率有显着影响。在过去十年中，人口下降的南北差异更加明显。在随后的十年中，在给定时间人口减少的城市中，人口减少的可能性也更大。这些发现凸显了地域因素在塑造整个意大利人口减少方面的相关作用，以及对人口动态进行空间明确分析对于地方发展研究和政策的重要性。