We surveyed members of the adaptation community about their views on high-end climate change—here defined as global average temperature increase exceeding 2 °C at the end of the century—at consecutive conferences in 2016 and 2018. Most strikingly our surveys show that a majority of the community disagrees that the Paris Agreement has reduced the possibility of the world reaching dangerous levels of climate change. Consistent with this, around two thirds of people consulted are considering high-end climate change or using high-end scenarios in their work all the time, or starting to. However, this is still not done by all. Preparedness for the specific threats posed by high-end impacts is not keeping pace, and more work needs to be done to strengthen the research basis and understand adaptation needs under high-end climate change. Moreover, views on finding information on impacts and tools for decision-making have not changed between 2016 and 2018, showing that there is no improvement. This situation underlines that the adaptation community needs to do better in supporting exchange of information and data between all actors—in addition to finding and filling knowledge gaps. Despite this, there is widespread support for avoiding delaying large-scale adaptation until we have more certainty.

中文翻译：

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调查对高端气候变化的看法和做法

我们在 2016 年和 2018 年的连续会议上调查了适应社区成员对高端气候变化（这里定义为本世纪末全球平均气温升高超过 2°C）的看法。最引人注目的是，我们的调查表明，大多数社区不同意《巴黎协定》降低了世界气候变化达到危险水平的可能性。与此一致的是，大约三分之二的受访者正在考虑高端气候变化或在他们的工作中一直或开始使用高端场景。然而，这仍然不是所有人都能做到的。应对高端影响带来的具体威胁的准备没有跟上，需要做更多的工作来加强研究基础，了解高端气候变化下的适应需求。而且，2016 年至 2018 年期间，关于寻找影响和决策工具信息的观点没有改变，表明没有改善。这种情况表明，除了寻找和填补知识空白之外，适应社区还需要在支持所有参与者之间交换信息和数据方面做得更好。尽管如此，人们普遍支持避免推迟大规模适应，直到我们有更多的确定性。