The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) mounted on the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite can provide both temperature and humidity information for a weather prediction model. Based on the rapid-refresh multi-scale analysis and prediction system－short-term (RMAPS-ST), we investigated the impact of ATMS radiance data assimilation on strong rainfall forecasts. Two groups of experiments were conducted to forecast heavy precipitation over North China between July 18 and July 20, 2016. The initial conditions and forecast results from the two groups of experiments have been compared and evaluated against observations. In comparison with the first group of experiments that only assimilated conventional observations, some added value can be obtained for the initial conditions of temperature, humidity, and wind fields after assimilating ATMS radiance observations in the system. For the forecast results with the assimilation of ATMS radiances, the score skills of quantitative forecast rainfall have been improved when verified against the observed rainfall. The Heidke skill score (HSS) skills of 6-h accumulated precipitation in the 24-h forecasts were overall increased, more prominently so for the heavy rainfall above 25 mm in the 0–6 h of forecasts. Assimilating ATMS radiance data reduced the false alarm ratio of quantitative precipitation forecasting in the 0–12 h of the forecast range and thus improved the threat scores for the heavy rainfall storm. Furthermore, the assimilation of ATMS radiances improved the spatial distribution of hourly rainfall forecast with observations compared with that of the first group of experiments, and the mean absolute error was reduced in the 10-h lead time of forecasts. The inclusion of ATMS radiances provided more information for the vertical structure of features in the temperature and moisture profiles, which had an indirect positive impact on the forecasts of the heavy rainfall in the RMAPS-ST system. However, the deviation in the location of the heavy rainfall center requires future work.

中文翻译：

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吸收ATMS辐射对RMAPS-ST中大雨预报的影响

Suomi国家极地轨道合作伙伴（NPP）卫星上安装的先进技术微波测深仪（ATMS）可以为天气预报模型提供温度和湿度信息。基于快速刷新多尺度分析和短期预报系统（RMAPS-ST），研究了ATMS辐射数据同化对强降雨预报的影响。进行了两组实验以预测2016年7月18日至7月20日期间华北地区的强降水。比较了两组实验的初始条件和预测结果，并与观测值进行了评估。与仅吸收常规观察结果的第一组实验相比，对于温度，湿度，吸收了系统中的ATMS辐射观测值后得出的风场和风场。对于与ATMS辐射同化的预报结果，通过对观测降雨量进行验证，可以提高定量预报降雨量的评分技巧。总体而言，在24小时的预报中6小时累积降水的海德克技能得分（HSS）技能总体上有所提高，在0-6小时的预报中25 mm以上的强降雨中尤为突出。吸收ATMS辐射数据可以减少预报范围0-12小时内定量降水预报的误报率，从而提高了强降雨风暴的威胁评分。此外，与第一组实验相比，对ATMS辐射的同化改善了带观测的每小时降雨预报的空间分布，平均绝对误差在预测的10小时前置时间内减少了。ATMS辐射的包含为温度和湿度剖面中要素的垂直结构提供了更多信息，这对RMAPS-ST系统中的强降雨预报具有间接的积极影响。但是，大雨中心位置的偏差需要将来的工作。