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Afforestation: Replacing livestock emissions with carbon sequestration.
Journal of Environmental Management ( IF 8.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110523
Colm Duffy 1 , Cathal O'Donoghue 2 , Mary Ryan 3 , David Styles 1 , Charles Spillane 1
Affiliation  

In Ireland, agriculture accounts for 33% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Ireland faces significant challenges in terms of emissions reduction and is well off course in terms of meeting binding European Union targets. Flexibility mechanisms will allow Ireland to offset 5.6% of its commitment via sequestration in biomass and soils and land use change. Agricultural emissions in Ireland are largely driven by livestock production. As such, the purpose of this research is to estimate the net GHG emission benefit resulting from a land use change with forest replacing livestock systems (dairy, beef cattle and sheep). We estimate the total carbon sequestration in biomass and harvested wood products, along with the total emissions avoided from each livestock system on a per hectare basis. In addition, the paper compares the social cost of carbon to the average income per hectare of each livestock system. Finally, a hypothetical national planting scenario is modelled using plausible planting rates. Results indicate that the greatest carbon benefit is achieved when forest replaces dairy production. This is due to high emissions per hectare from dairy systems, and greater sequestration potential in higher-yielding forests planted on better quality soils associated with dairy production. The inclusion of harvested wood products in subsequent rotations has the potential to enhance GHG mitigation and offset terrestrial carbon loss. A hypothetical national planting scenario, afforesting 100,000 ha substituting dairy, beef cattle and sheep livestock systems could abate 13.91 Mt CO2e after 10 years, and 150.14 Mt CO2e (unthinned plantations) or 125.89 Mt CO2e (thinned plantations) over the course of the rotation. These results highlight the critical role for forest land use change in meeting the urgent need to tackle rising agricultural emissions.

中文翻译:

绿化:通过固碳替代牲畜的排放。

在爱尔兰,农业占全国温室气体(GHG)排放量的33%。爱尔兰在减少排放量方面面临着严峻的挑战,在实现具有约束力的欧盟目标方面则远远落后。灵活性机制将使爱尔兰能够通过封存生物量和土壤以及土地利用变化来抵消其承诺的5.6%。爱尔兰的农业排放量主要由畜牧生产驱动。因此,本研究的目的是估算因森林替代牲畜系统(奶牛,肉牛和绵羊)而改变土地用途而产生的净温室气体排放效益。我们估算了每公顷土地上生物量和伐木产品中的总固碳量,以及每个牲畜系统避免的总排放量。此外,本文将碳的社会成本与每个牲畜系统每公顷的平均收入进行了比较。最后,使用合理的种植率对假设的全国种植情况进行建模。结果表明,当森林替代奶制品生产时,将实现最大的碳效益。这是由于乳制品系统每公顷的排放量很高,以及种植在与乳制品生产相关的质量更高的土壤上的高产森林中更高的封存潜力。在随后的轮作中将采伐的木材产品包括在内,有可能增强温室气体的缓解和抵消陆地碳的损失。假设有一个全国性种植情景,用10万公顷的森林代替奶场,肉牛和绵羊的牲畜系统,十年后可减少13.91吨二氧化碳当量,而150.14吨二氧化碳(无人工种植)或125个。轮作过程中,产生了89吨CO2e(稀薄的人工林)。这些结果突显了林地用途变化在满足应对日益上升的农业排放量的紧迫需求方面的关键作用。
更新日期:2020-04-03
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