The Mediterranean coastal zone is particularly vulnerable to climate-induced sea-level rise due to rapid coastal development, leading to increased flood exposure in coastal areas. In Croatia, the share of developed coastline is still lower than in other Mediterranean countries, but development has accelerated since the 1960s. Available assessments of future coastal flood risk take into account adaptation by hard structural protection measures but do not consider other options, such as retreat from exposed areas or restricting future development. In this study, we provide the first assessment of the effects of setback zones on future coastal flood impacts on national scale. We extend the flood impact and adaptation module of the DIVA modelling framework with models of restricted future development and slow retreat (managed realignment) in the form of setback zones. We apply this model to a downscaled database of coastal segments of the coastline of Croatia. We find that setback zones are an effective and efficient measure for coastal adaptation. Construction restriction and managed realignment reduce the future cost of coastal flooding significantly, especially in combination with protection. If protection and construction restriction by setback zones are combined, the future cost of coastal flooding can be reduced by up to 39%. Combining protection and managed realignment by setback zones can reduce the future cost of coastal flooding by up to 93%.

中文翻译：

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挫折区适应克罗地亚海平面上升的有效性

由于沿海地区的快速发展，地中海沿岸地区特别容易受到气候引起的海平面上升的影响，导致沿海地区洪水泛滥的风险增加。在克罗地亚，发达海岸线的份额仍然低于其他地中海国家，但自1960年代以来发展加速了。现有的对未来沿海洪灾风险的评估考虑了硬性结构保护措施的适应性，但未考虑其他选择，例如从裸露地区撤退或限制未来发展。在这项研究中，我们提供了对全国范围内未来沿海洪灾影响的挫折区影响的首次评估。我们以受挫区域的形式扩展了DIVA建模框架的洪水影响和适应模块，以限制未来发展和缓慢撤退（管理调整）的模型。我们将此模型应用于克罗地亚海岸线沿海部分的缩减数据库。我们发现，挫折区是海岸适应的有效措施。施工限制和有组织的调整可以显着降低未来沿海洪灾的成本，尤其是与保护措施相结合时。如果将受挫地区的保护和建设限制结合起来，则未来的沿海洪灾成本最多可降低39％。将保护与受挫区域的调整调整相结合，可以将未来的沿海洪灾成本降低多达93％。我们将此模型应用于克罗地亚海岸线沿海部分的缩减数据库。我们发现，挫折区是海岸适应的有效措施。施工限制和有组织的调整可以显着降低未来沿海洪水的成本，尤其是与保护措施相结合时。如果将受挫地区的保护和建设限制结合起来，则未来的沿海洪灾成本最多可降低39％。将保护与受挫区域的调整调整相结合，可以将未来的沿海洪灾成本降低多达93％。我们将此模型应用于克罗地亚海岸线沿海地区的缩小规模的数据库。我们发现，挫折区是海岸适应的有效措施。施工限制和有组织的调整可以显着降低未来沿海洪灾的成本，尤其是与保护措施相结合时。如果将受挫地区的保护和建设限制结合起来，则未来的沿海洪灾成本最多可降低39％。将保护与受挫区域的调整调整相结合，可以将未来的沿海洪灾成本降低多达93％。特别是结合保护。如果将受挫地区的保护和建设限制结合起来，则未来的沿海洪灾成本最多可降低39％。将保护与受挫区域的调整调整相结合，可以将未来的沿海洪灾成本降低多达93％。特别是结合保护。如果将受挫地区的保护和建设限制结合起来，则未来的沿海洪灾成本最多可降低39％。将保护与受挫区域的调整调整相结合，可以将未来的沿海洪灾成本降低多达93％。