Globally, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have continued to ravage the human existence through the premature deaths of its workforce. Despite this burden, many studies in Nigeria have focused on determining the prevalence of risk factors which alone are insufficient to assess the risk of future cardiovascular events. Therefore, we determined the pattern and predictors of 10-year risk for CVDs in South-western Nigeria. We conducted a cross-sectional study among workers at the local government areas (LGAs) of Oyo State. Using a multi-stage sampling technique, we recruited 260 respondents from the LGA secretariats. A pre-tested, interviewer-administered questionnaire was administered to obtain information on the socio-demographics and behavioural attributes. Lipid analysis, anthropometric, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose measurements were done using standard protocols. The respondents’ CVD risk was assessed using WHO prediction chart. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS version 25; bivariate analysis was done using Chi-square and binary logistic regression was used to identify the predictors of 10-year risk for CVDs at 5% level of significance. The mean age of respondents was 46.0 + 6.7 years. The proportion of respondents with good knowledge of risk factors was 57.7%. The prevalence of CVD risk factors were as follows: systolic hypertension (29.6%), visceral obesity (35.8%), diabetes mellitus (18.8%), smoking (5.8%), elevated total cholesterol (55.4%) and physical inactivity (84.6%). The proportion of respondents with low, moderate and high risk of developing CVDs within 10 years was 76.9, 8.5 and 14.6% respectively. Respondents with age ≥ 40 years (aOR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.3–8.5), management cadre (aOR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.6–9.6), obesity (aOR = 4.8, 95% CI = 1.2–120), abnormal waist circumference (aOR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.3–5.2) and physical inactivity (aOR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.2–4.7) were associated with the higher likelihood of developing CVDs. About one-sixth of the respondents had high risk of developing CVDs within the next 10 years and it is likely that it will reduce the productivity of the State. Lifestyle modification and early detection of risk factors through regular screening programmes for those with high CVD risk is therefore recommended.

中文翻译：

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使用世卫组织预测图表预测的十年心血管疾病风险：尼日利亚西南部公务员的调查结果

在全球范围内，心血管疾病（CVD）通过其劳动力的过早死亡继续破坏着人类的生存。尽管有这种负担，尼日利亚的许多研究仍集中于确定危险因素的流行，仅这些因素不足以评估未来心血管事件的风险。因此，我们确定了尼日利亚西南部CVD的十年风险的模式和预测因素。我们对奥约州地方政府区域（LGAs）的工人进行了横断面研究。使用多阶段抽样技术，我们从LGA秘书处招募了260名受访者。进行了预先测试，由访调员管理的问卷调查，以获取有关社会人口统计学和行为特征的信息。血脂分析，人体测量，血压，使用标准方案进行空腹血糖测量。使用WHO预测图评估了受访者的CVD风险。使用IBM SPSS 25版分析数据；使用卡方检验进行双变量分析，并使用二元逻辑回归分析以5％的显着性水平确定CVD十年风险的预测指标。受访者的平均年龄为46.0 + 6.7岁。熟悉危险因素的受访者比例为57.7％。CVD危险因素的患病率如下：收缩期高血压（29.6％），内脏肥胖（35.8％），糖尿病（18.8％），吸烟（5.8％），总胆固醇升高（55.4％）和缺乏运动（84.6％） ）。在10年内发生CVD的风险为低，中，高的受访者比例分别为76.9、8.5和14.6％。年龄≥40岁（aOR = 2.6，95％CI = 1.3–8.5），管理干部（aOR = 3.8，95％CI = 1.6–9.6），肥胖症（aOR = 4.8，95％CI = 1.2–120）异常腰围（aOR = 2.8，95％CI = 1.3-5.2）和缺乏运动能力（aOR = 2.4，95％CI = 1.2-4.7）与发生CVD的可能性更高相关。大约六分之一的受访者在未来10年内有发展CVD的高风险，这很可能会降低该州的生产力。因此，建议通过定期的筛查程序来改变生活方式，并通过定期筛查计划对那些具有高CVD风险的人进行早期发现。95％CI = 1.2–4.7）与发生CVD的可能性更高相关。大约六分之一的受访者在未来十年内有发展CVD的高风险，这很可能会降低该州的生产力。因此，建议通过定期的筛查程序来改变生活方式，并通过定期筛查计划对那些具有高CVD风险的人进行早期发现。95％CI = 1.2–4.7）与发生CVD的可能性更高相关。大约六分之一的受访者在未来10年内有发展CVD的高风险，这很可能会降低该州的生产力。因此，建议通过定期的筛查程序来改变生活方式，并通过定期的筛查程序对那些具有高CVD风险的人进行早期发现。