This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of the lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of shortage of supply and demand. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo when production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that when Tokyo is locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan, or 5.3% of its annual GDP. Although the production shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in a reduction of the daily production in Japan by 86% in a month.

中文翻译：

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通过供应链传播经济影响：针对 COVID-19 传播的大城市封锁案例

这项研究量化了东京可能封锁以防止 COVID-19 传播的经济影响。由于供需短缺，封锁的负面影响可能会通过供应链传播到其他地区。将基于代理的模型应用于日本近 160 万家公司的实际供应链，我们模拟了当对东京市民的生存不重要的生产活动在一段时间内关闭时，东京以外的生产活动会发生什么。我们发现，当东京封城一个月时，对其他地区的间接影响将是对东京的直接影响的两倍，导致日本总生产损失 27 万亿日元，占其年度 GDP 的 5.3% . 虽然东京停产的产量占日本总产量的 21%，