Carbon leakage, a shift of carbon emissions from a region with emission constraint to unregulated areas, has been a great concern in energy-related industries and the forest sector. Carbon leakage may weaken the effectiveness of regional climate policies. This study aims to identify the drivers of carbon leakage and provide policy implications to mitigate carbon leakage using meta-regression. A total of 46 studies are collected, which provide 230 estimates of carbon leakage. Results show that (i) the forest sector has larger carbon leakage of 39.6%; (ii) substitution degree increases carbon leakage, but it is not statistically significant; (iii) contrary to popular belief, coalition size is not always negatively related to carbon leakage; (iv) local economic conditions are key drivers of carbon leakage; and (v) carbon leakage is overestimated in the forest sector by 41.42% when ignoring agricultural expansion through the land use change. Results also support the following policy implications: (i) the global agreement, which requires the participation of poorer regions and countries, may effectively reduce carbon leakage; (ii) a mature worldwide carbon trading market with relatively high carbon prices can attract more participants; and (iii) a long-term and integrated land-use planning will be an effective way to reduce carbon leakage caused by agricultural expansion.

中文翻译：

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使用元分析的能源/森林部门的碳泄漏和气候政策影响

碳泄漏，即碳排放从排放限制地区转移到不受管制地区，一直是能源相关行业和林业部门的一个重大问题。碳泄漏可能会削弱区域气候政策的有效性。本研究旨在确定碳泄漏的驱动因素，并提供政策含义以使用元回归减轻碳泄漏。总共收集了 46 项研究，提供了 230 项碳泄漏估计值。结果表明：(i) 林业部门的碳泄漏较大，为 39.6%；(ii) 取代度增加碳泄漏，但不具有统计显着性；(iii) 与普遍看法相反，联盟规模并不总是与碳泄漏呈负相关；(iv) 当地经济条件是碳泄漏的关键驱动因素；(v) 在忽略土地利用变化导致的农业扩张时，森林部门的碳泄漏被高估了 41.42%。结果还支持以下政策含义：(i) 需要较贫穷地区和国家参与的全球协议可以有效减少碳泄漏；(ii) 成熟的全球碳交易市场，碳价格相对较高，可以吸引更多的参与者；(iii) 长期、综合的土地利用规划将是减少农业扩张造成的碳泄漏的有效途径。(ii) 成熟的全球碳交易市场，碳价格相对较高，可以吸引更多的参与者；(iii) 长期、综合的土地利用规划将是减少农业扩张造成的碳泄漏的有效途径。(ii) 成熟的全球碳交易市场，碳价格相对较高，可以吸引更多的参与者；(iii) 长期、综合的土地利用规划将是减少农业扩张造成的碳泄漏的有效途径。