Aggressive driving has become a national traffic-safety concern, with increasing congestion and other stress-inducing factors making it more likely drivers take out their frustrations by driving aggressively. Looking at single-vehicle crashes, this study investigates differences between resulting crash-injury severities when aggressive and non-aggressive driving behavior is observed, and how these differences changed over time. Using three years of crash data from 2015 to 2017 (inclusive), random parameters multinomial logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances were estimated. The available crash data included a wide variety of factors known to influence driver-injury severity including data related to the crash, vehicle, driver, spatial and temporal characteristics, roadway attributes, and traffic volume. Model estimates show that there were significant differences in driver-injury severities resulting from aggressive and non-aggressive driving, and that the effect of factors that determine injury severities changed significantly over time (statistically significant temporal instability). However, it is noteworthy that crashes involving non-aggressive drivers had many explanatory variables that produced temporally stable marginal effects, whereas crashes involving aggressive drivers had only one such variable (restraint belt usage). This suggests the possibility that temporal instability found in many recent safety studies may be driven by a subset of the crash population, and that there may be temporal stability in many crashes. Exploring this possibility is a promising direction for future empirical investigation.

激进驾驶已成为全国交通安全问题，随着交通拥堵和其他压力诱发因素的增加，使驾驶员更有可能通过激进驾驶来消除挫败感。着眼于单车碰撞，这项研究调查了在观察到攻击性和非攻击性驾驶行为时导致的碰撞伤害严重性之间的差异，以及这些差异如何随时间变化。使用2015年至2017年（包括3年）的三年崩溃数据，对均值和方差未观察到的异质性的随机参数多项式logit模型进行了估计。可用的碰撞数据包括各种已知会影响驾驶员伤害严重性的因素，包括与碰撞，车辆，驾驶员，空间和时间特征，道路属性和交通量有关的数据。模型估计值表明，由激进和非激进驾驶导致的驾驶员伤害严重性存在显着差异，并且确定伤害严重性的因素的影响会随时间发生显着变化（统计上显着的时间不稳定）。但是，值得注意的是，涉及非攻击性驾驶员的撞车有许多解释变量会产生时间上稳定的边际效应，而涉及攻击性驾驶员的撞车只有一个这样的变量（约束带的使用）。这表明，在许多近期安全研究中发现的时间不稳定可能是由撞车事故的一部分驱动的，并且在许多撞车事件中可能存在时间稳定性。探索这种可能性是未来实证研究的有希望的方向。