An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China,Science

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An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
Science ( IF 56.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-31 , DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6105
Huaiyu Tian ₁ , Yonghong Liu ₁ , Yidan Li ₁ , Chieh-Hsi Wu ₂ , Bin Chen ₃ , Moritz U G Kraemer _{4,

5,

6} , Bingying Li ₁ , Jun Cai ₇ , Bo Xu ₇ , Qiqi Yang ₁ , Ben Wang ₁ , Peng Yang ₈ , Yujun Cui ₉ , Yimeng Song ₁₀ , Pai Zheng ₁₁ , Quanyi Wang ₈ , Ottar N Bjornstad _{12,

13} , Ruifu Yang ₉ , Bryan T Grenfell _{14,

15} , Oliver G Pybus ₄ , Christopher Dye _{4,

16}

Affiliation

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.
State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, China.
Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Department of Entomology, College of Agricultural Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

The most effective interventions By 23 January 2020, China had imposed a national emergency response to restrict travel and impose social distancing measures on its populace in an attempt to inhibit the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, which measures were most effective is uncertain. Tian et al. performed a quantitative analysis of the impact of control measures between 31 December 2019 and 19 February 2020, which encompasses the Lunar New Year period when millions of people traveled across China for family visits. Travel restrictions in and out of Wuhan were too late to prevent the spread of the virus to 262 cities within 28 days. However, the epidemic peaked in Hubei province on 4 February 2020, indicating that measures such as closing citywide public transport and entertainment venues and banning public gatherings combined to avert hundreds of thousands of cases of infection. It is unlikely that this decline happened because the supply of susceptible people was exhausted, so relaxing control measures could lead to a resurgence. Science, this issue p. 638 Travel restrictions and the national emergency response delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

更新日期：2020-03-31

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