To keep up with constantly growing user demands for services with higher quality and bandwidth requirements, telecommunication operators are forced to upgrade their networks. This upgrade, or migration of the network to a new technology, is a complex strategic network planning problem that involves techno-economic evaluations over multiple periods of time. The state-of-the-art approaches consider migrations to a concrete architecture and do not take uncertainties, such as user churn, into account. This results in migration cost underestimations and profitability over-estimations. In this paper, we propose a generic migration algorithm derived from a search based rational agent decision process that can deal with uncertainties and provides the migration path using a maximized utility function. The algorithm maximizes the migration project profitability, measured as accumulated Net Present Value (NPV). This flexible and generic methodology has been evaluated on the example of migration from existing copper networks to the future-proof Passive Optical Network (PON) architectures. Our proposed flexible migration algorithm is validated over pure residential and converged scenarios in a fully reproducible case study. The results yield that the migration flexibility is a key to the profit maximization.

中文翻译：

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用于战略融合网络迁移规划的基于理性代理的决策算法

为了满足不断增长的用户对更高质量和更高带宽要求的服务需求，电信运营商被迫升级其网络。网络向新技术的升级或迁移是一个复杂的战略网络规划问题，涉及多个时间段的技术经济评估。最先进的方法考虑迁移到具体架构，并且不考虑不确定性，例如用户流失。这导致迁移成本低估和盈利能力高估。在本文中，我们提出了一种从基于搜索的理性代理决策过程派生的通用迁移算法，该算法可以处理不确定性并使用最大化效用函数提供迁移路径。该算法最大限度地提高了迁移项目的盈利能力，以累计净现值 (NPV) 来衡量。这种灵活和通用的方法已经在从现有铜缆网络迁移到面向未来的无源光网络 (PON) 架构的示例中进行了评估。我们提出的灵活迁移算法在完全可重复的案例研究中在纯住宅和融合场景中得到验证。结果表明，迁移灵活性是利润最大化的关键。我们提出的灵活迁移算法在完全可重复的案例研究中在纯住宅和融合场景中得到验证。结果表明，迁移灵活性是利润最大化的关键。我们提出的灵活迁移算法在完全可重复的案例研究中在纯住宅和融合场景中得到验证。结果表明，迁移灵活性是利润最大化的关键。