In recent years attention has shifted from “dam safety” to “dam risk” due to the high loss characteristics of dam breaks. Despite this, there has been little research on social impact assessments. Variable fuzzy sets (VFSs) are a theoretical system for dealing with uncertainty that are used in many industries. However, the relative membership degree (RMD) calculations required for VFSs are complicated and data can be overlooked. Furthermore, the RMD is highly subjective when dealing with qualitative problems, which can seriously affect the accuracy of the results. This study introduces grey system theory (GST) which analyzes the RMD characteristics to improve traditional VFSs. A new method for calculating the social impact of a dam break is proposed based on the correlation between the core parameters of the two theories. The Liujiatai Reservoir is used as a test case and the new and traditional evaluation methods are compared. The results show that the proposed method has advantages when dealing with uncertainty that are consistent with the characteristics of the problems associated with dam break social impact assessments. Moreover, the evaluation results obtained using the proposed method are consistent with, or more accurate than, those obtained using the traditional method.

中文翻译：

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基于改进的可变模糊集模型的溃坝社会影响评价评价

近年来，由于大坝溃决的高损失特性，人们的注意力已经从“大坝安全”转向“大坝风险”。尽管如此，关于社会影响评估的研究却很少。变量模糊集 (VFS) 是用于处理许多行业中使用的不确定性的理论系统。然而，VFS 所需的相对隶属度 (RMD) 计算很复杂，数据可能会被忽略。此外，RMD 在处理定性问题时具有很强的主观性，这会严重影响结果的准确性。本研究引入灰色系统理论 (GST)，分析 RMD 特性以改进传统 VFS。基于两种理论核心参数之间的相关性，提出了一种计算溃坝社会影响的新方法。以刘家台水库为例，比较了新旧评价方法。结果表明，所提出的方法在处理与溃坝社会影响评估相关问题的特征一致的不确定性时具有优势。此外，使用所提出的方法获得的评估结果与使用传统方法获得的评估结果一致或更准确。