Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01790-4 Abdol Rassoul Zarei , Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi
The annual yield of different plant species is affected by various parameters such as soil and water properties, climatic variables, etc. Due to the importance of the role of climatic variables on the yield of rain-fed winter wheat (as a strategic and effective plant species in the food security of the people of Iran), in this research the influence of climatic variables including the mean annual maximum temperature (MAT), the mean annual minimum temperature (MIT), the mean annual sunshine (SS), the mean annual relative humidity (HU), the mean annual wind speed (W) and the annual rainfall (R) on the annual yield of rain-fed winter wheat (AYWW) were evaluated based on the records of 10 stations from 1967 to 2016 scattered in Iran. To evaluate the impact of climate variables on the AYWW, the backward time series regression (BTSR), the backward logistic generalized estimating equation (BLGEE) and the backward generalized estimating equation (BGEE) statistical methods were used. All the statistical methods showed that W and SS variables were respectively the most and the least effective variables on the AYWW. Effective variables on AYWW in the BTSR were found to be the W, MIT and R (in 5, 4 and 1 stations out of 10), Effective variables on AYWW in the BLGEE were found to be the W, MIT, R and MAT (in 5, 3, 1 and 1 stations out of 10) and effective variables on AYWW in the BGEE were found to be the W, MIT, R and HU (in 5, 3, 1 and 1 stations out of 10).
中文翻译:
使用不同的统计模型确定不同气候变量对雨养冬小麦年产量的有效率
不同植物物种的年产量受各种参数的影响,例如土壤和水的性质,气候变量等。由于气候变量对雨养冬小麦(作为一种战略有效植物)的产量的重要性物种在伊朗人民的粮食安全中),在这项研究中,气候变量的影响包括年平均最高温度(MAT),年平均最低温度(MIT),年平均日照(SS),年平均基于1967年至2016年分布在伊朗的10个气象站的记录,评估了雨养冬小麦(AYWW)年产量的相对湿度(HU),年平均风速(W)和年降雨量(R) 。为了评估气候变量对AYWW的影响,向后时间序列回归(BTSR),分别采用后向逻辑广义估计方程(BLGEE)和后向广义估计方程(BGEE)统计方法。所有统计方法都表明,W和SS变量分别是AYWW上最有效和最不有效的变量。BTSR中AYWW的有效变量是W,MIT和R(在10个站中有5、4和1个站),BLGEE中AYWW的有效变量是W,MIT,R和MAT( 10个站中有5个,3个,1个和1个站),BGEE中AYWW上的有效变量是W,MIT,R和HU(10个站中有5、3、1和1个站)。所有统计方法都表明,W和SS变量分别是AYWW上最有效和最不有效的变量。BTSR中AYWW的有效变量是W,MIT和R(在10个站中有5、4和1个站),BLGEE中AYWW的有效变量是W,MIT,R和MAT( 10个站中有5个,3个,1个和1个站),BGEE中AYWW上的有效变量是W,MIT,R和HU(10个站中有5、3、1和1个站)。所有统计方法都表明,W和SS变量分别是AYWW上最有效和最不有效的变量。BTSR中AYWW的有效变量是W,MIT和R(在10个站中有5、4和1个站),BLGEE中AYWW的有效变量是W,MIT,R和MAT( 10个站中有5个,3个,1个和1个站),BGEE中AYWW上的有效变量是W,MIT,R和HU(10个站中有5、3、1和1个站)。