Abstract The looming impacts of changing climate and ever increasing water and energy demands make it important to quantify expected water and energy availabilities and develop strategies to mitigate expected shortfalls. Keeping these aspects in mind, in this paper, hydrological modeling is performed on the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) to simulate the inflows to the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) based on the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model and a Multiple-input single-output Linear Systematic Model (MLSM). These models are derived for historical (1960–2005) and future (near: 2021–2050 and far: 2061–2090) time periods using bias corrected climate projections from an ensemble of 6 RCMs available through the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Simulating with and without snow, hydrological responses to both the historical and future climates are fed into a daily reservoir simulation model where the operation of the TGR follows the designed operating rule curves which can be regarded as a standard operating policy (SOP). The results indicate marginal reduction in mean annual precipitation, inflow and hydropower generation and mean hydropower generation reliability for the future scenarios under RCP 8.5 with the decreases for far future being more prominent than those for near future. The inflow decreases strongly reduce the hydropower generation of the TGR in November and May and have limited impact on other months because of the regulation ability of the SOP. Hydropower generation responses to extreme variations in annual inflow are projected to aggravate the water and energy security stress of the TGR. The without snow projections alter the inflow patterns as well as the hydropower generation patterns of the TGR with respect to the with snow projections and are likely to have positive impact on the water impounding and hydropower generation for both the historical and future time periods.

中文翻译：

---

使用 RCM 集合评估三峡水库未来的水资源和能源稀缺性、安全性和可持续性

摘要 气候变化和不断增加的水和能源需求的迫在眉睫的影响使得量化预期的水和能源可用性并制定减少预期短缺的战略变得非常重要。考虑到这些方面，本文基于水文工程中心的水文建模系统（HEC-HMS）模型对长江上游流域（UYRB）进行水文建模，以模拟三峡水库（TGR）的入流和多输入单输出线性系统模型 (MLSM)。这些模型是针对历史（1960-2005）和未来（近：2021-2050 和远：2061-2090) 时间段，使用来自 6 个 RCM 集合的偏差校正气候预测，这些预测可通过东亚协调区域降尺度实验 (CORDEX-EA) 在代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 下获得。在有雪和无雪的情况下进行模拟，对历史和未来气候的水文响应被输入到每日水库模拟模型中，其中 TGR 的运行遵循设计的运行规则曲线，可被视为标准运行策略 (SOP)。结果表明，RCP 8.5 下未来情景的年平均降水量、流入量和水力发电量以及平均水力发电可靠性均出现边际下降，远期的下降幅度比近期的下降幅度更大。由于SOP的调节能力，流入量的减少大大减少了TGR在11月和5月的水力发电量，对其他月份的影响有限。预计水力发电对年度流入量极端变化的响应将加剧 TGR 的水和能源安全压力。与有雪预测相比，无雪预测改变了 TGR 的流入模式和水力发电模式，并可能对历史和未来时期的蓄水和水力发电产生积极影响。预计水力发电对年度流入量极端变化的响应将加剧 TGR 的水和能源安全压力。与有雪预测相比，无雪预测改变了 TGR 的流入模式和水力发电模式，并可能对历史和未来时期的蓄水和水力发电产生积极影响。预计水力发电对年度流入量极端变化的响应将加剧 TGR 的水和能源安全压力。与有雪预测相比，无雪预测改变了 TGR 的流入模式和水力发电模式，并可能对历史和未来时期的蓄水和水力发电产生积极影响。