Abstract The purpose of this research is to evaluate greenhouse gas emission reduction opportunities from cogenerated electricity in oil sands production. A novel combined market penetration and bottom-up energy system modelling framework was developed to assess the long-range potential and marginal costs of cogenerated electricity in the oil sands. Feasible scenarios for incorporating cogeneration into the in situ, surface mining, and upgrading subsectors were developed along with four additional scenarios incorporating electricity-based technologies to improve in situ plant efficiencies. These scenarios were evaluated under three different carbon pricing policies; twenty-one scenarios in total covering the time period 2019 to 2050. The use of cogeneration in the oil sands for new production during this period was determined through market penetration modelling and the results were compared to a reference scenario of limited cogeneration growth. It was found that there is potential to provide 76 million tonnes of greenhouse gas abatement (2% of cumulative projected oil sands emissions) at a marginal cost of $15 per tonne of carbon abated compared to the reference scenario. The incorporation of electrical equipment, specifically well-pad boilers, well-pad compressors, additional steam compressors, and steam superheaters, resulted in additional costs that outweighed the benefits. A $50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent carbon price (within the current Alberta emission reduction regulation) resulted in a 2% increase in forecasted greenhouse gas abatement potential and a $1.4/tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent decrease in marginal abatement costs compared to no carbon pricing. This research provides quantification of the greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and marginal abatement costs of cogeneration technologies to allow industry stakeholders and policymakers to compare these technology options to others when considering long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction.

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联合发电减少油砂中温室气体排放的机会评估

摘要 本研究的目的是评估油砂生产中热电联产的温室气体减排机会。开发了一种新的结合市场渗透和自下而上的能源系统建模框架来评估油砂中热电联产的长期潜力和边际成本。开发了将热电联产纳入原位、露天采矿和升级子行业的可行方案，以及结合基于电力的技术以提高原位工厂效率的四个附加方案。这些情景是在三种不同的碳定价政策下进行评估的；总共 21 个情景，涵盖 2019 年至 2050 年的时间段。在此期间，油砂中热电联产用于新生产的情况是通过市场渗透模型确定的，并将结果与​​热电联产增长有限的参考情景进行比较。结果表明，与参考情景相比，以每吨碳减排 15 美元的边际成本提供 7600 万吨温室气体减排（累计预计油砂排放量的 2%）的潜力。电气设备的结合，特别是井垫锅炉、井垫压缩机、额外的蒸汽压缩机和蒸汽过热器，导致额外的成本超过收益。每吨二氧化碳当量碳价格 50 美元（在目前的艾伯塔省减排法规范围内）导致预测的温室气体减排潜力增加 2%，增加 1 美元。与无碳定价相比，边际减排成本降低 4/吨二氧化碳当量。这项研究提供了对热电联产技术的温室气体减排潜力和边际减排成本的量化，以允许行业利益相关者和政策制定者在考虑长期温室气体减排时将这些技术选项与其他技术选项进行比较。