Abstract The economics of wind and solar generation face two opposing drivers. Technological progress leads to lower costs and both wind and solar have shown dramatic price reductions in recent decades. At the same time, adding wind and solar lowers market electricity prices and thus revenue during periods when they produce energy. In this work, we analyze these two opposing effects of renewable integration: learning and diminishing marginal revenue, investigated using a model that assumes the status quo with regards to generation technology mix and demand. Our modeling results suggest that reduction in revenue from market forces may offset or even outpace technological progress. If deployed on current grids without changes to demand response, storage or other integrating technologies, the cost of mitigating CO2 with wind will increase and will be no cheaper in the future than it is today for solar. This study highlights the need to deploy grid technologies such as storage and new transmission in order to integrate wind and solar in an economically sustainable manner.

中文翻译：

---

学习还不够：风能和太阳能的边际收入减少和减排成本增加

摘要 风能和太阳能发电的经济性面临着两个对立的驱动因素。技术进步导致成本降低，近几十年来风能和太阳能的价格都出现了大幅下降。同时，增加风能和太阳能会降低市场电价，从而降低它们生产能源期间的收入。在这项工作中，我们分析了可再生能源整合的这两个相反的影响：学习和边际收入递减，并使用假设发电技术组合和需求现状的模型进行调查。我们的建模结果表明，来自市场力量的收入减少可能会抵消甚至超过技术进步。如果部署在当前电网上而不改变需求响应、存储或其他集成技术，利用风能减少二氧化碳排放的成本将会增加，而且未来的成本不会比现在的太阳能便宜。这项研究强调需要部署电网技术，例如存储和新传输，以便以经济可持续的方式整合风能和太阳能。