Marine environments have increased in temperature by an average of 1°C since pre-industrial (1850) times [1]. Given that species ranges are closely allied to physiological thermal tolerances in marine organisms [2], it may therefore be expected that ocean warming would lead to abundance increases at poleward side of ranges and abundance declines toward the equator [3]. Here, we report a global analysis of abundance trends of 304 widely distributed marine species over the last century, across a range of taxonomic groups from phytoplankton to fish and marine mammals. Specifically, using a literature database, we investigate the extent that the direction and strength of long-term species abundance changes depend on the sampled location within the latitudinal range of species. Our results show that abundance increases have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the poleward side of species ranges, and abundance declines have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the equatorward side of species ranges. These data provide evidence of omnipresent large-scale changes in abundance of marine species consistent with warming over the last century and suggest that adaptation has not provided a buffer against the negative effects of warmer conditions at the equatorward extent of species ranges. On the basis of these results, we suggest that projected sea temperature increases of up to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by 2050 [4] will continue to drive latitudinal abundance shifts in marine species, including those of importance for coastal livelihoods.

中文翻译：

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气候变化推动海洋物种的极高增长和赤道下降。

自工业化前（1850）以来，海洋环境的温度平均升高了1°C [1]。考虑到物种范围与海洋生物的生理耐热性密切相关[2]，因此可以预期，海洋变暖将导致范围极点处的丰度增加，而向赤道方向的丰度下降[3]。在这里，我们报告了对上个世纪304种广泛分布的海洋物种在从浮游植物到鱼类和海洋哺乳动物的各种分类学类别中的丰度趋势的全球分析。具体来说，使用文献数据库，我们调查了长期物种丰度变化的方向和强度取决于物种纬度范围内的采样位置的程度。我们的结果表明，在物种范围的极点处进行采样时，丰度增加最为明显；而在物种范围的赤道面进行采样时，丰度下降最为明显。这些数据提供了与上个世纪的变暖相一致的无处不在的大量海洋物种大规模变化的证据，并表明适应性措施并没有为在物种范围赤道范围内变暖的不利影响提供缓冲。根据这些结果，我们认为，到2050年，预计海洋温度将比工业化前水平升高1.5°C [4]，将继续推动海洋物种的纬度丰度变化，包括那些对沿海生计至关重要的变化。