The integration of roundwood markets needs to be analyzed and understood by timberland investors in order to make appropriate decisions. This paper addresses the performance of global roundwood markets by evaluating the order of market integration in the United States (the South and Pacific Northwest), New Zealand, Brazil, South Africa, Sweden, Chile, Canada, Finland and Austria. An overview of each of these wood markets is provided and quarterly data of delivered prices are evaluated over the period 1995Q1-2017Q4. Various unit root tests and Johansen's cointegration tests have been computed. Results show that in general non-coniferous and coniferous wood markets are not integrated. However, it was found that the law of one price seems to hold for coniferous sawlog prices between Sweden and Finland, and non-coniferous pulpwood prices of wattle and eucalyptus species in South Africa. It was concluded that probably due to a lack of perfect substitutability of roundwood products and significant transaction costs among trading regions, global roundwood markets are characterized by relatively moderate correlations and a lack of cointegration, which indicates an apparent independence of these markets. These findings are important to timberland investment managers as they support the concept of market diversification within international investment portfolios.

中文翻译：

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全球圆木价格动态——协整分析

林地投资者需要分析和理解圆木市场的整合，以便做出适当的决策。本文通过评估美国（南部和太平洋西北部）、新西兰、巴西、南非、瑞典、智利、加拿大、芬兰和奥地利的市场整合顺序来阐述全球圆木市场的表现。提供了这些木材市场的概览，并评估了 1995 年第一季度至 2017 年第四季度期间交付价格的季度数据。已经计算了各种单位根检验和 Johansen 的协整检验。结果表明，一般而言，非针叶材和针叶材市场并未整合。然而，研究发现瑞典和芬兰之间的针叶锯材价格似乎适用一价定律，南非荆树和桉树种的非针叶木浆材价格。得出的结论是，可能由于圆木产品缺乏完美的替代性以及贸易地区之间的交易成本高，全球圆木市场的特点是相关性相对温和，缺乏协整，这表明这些市场具有明显的独立性。这些发现对林地投资经理很重要，因为它们支持国际投资组合中市场多元化的概念。全球圆木市场的特点是相关性相对温和且缺乏协整，这表明这些市场明显独立。这些发现对林地投资经理很重要，因为它们支持国际投资组合中市场多元化的概念。全球圆木市场的特点是相关性相对温和且缺乏协整，这表明这些市场明显独立。这些发现对林地投资经理很重要，因为它们支持国际投资组合中市场多元化的概念。