Abstract The Earned value management (EVM) is one of the simplified analytical cost-duration assessment tools which assist project managers in monitoring the status of the project undertaken. The EVM has been elaborated by both deterministic and uncertain numbers such as fuzzy logic in the light of time. Even though cost-duration analysis is so sensitive and fluctuating in projects, the adopted approaches were unable to consider the conspicuous unreliability which is always involving the decision-making data. This problem impedes project managers to trust the foreseen inferences. To help in overcoming this critical deficiency, Z-numbers were proposed to take possibilities and reliabilities into account. Applying Z-numbers and possibilistic modeling in the EVM is a challenging topic which causes the accuracy of cost-duration tracing results to be significantly enhanced. This paper presents the application of z-numbers for modeling the earned value indicators and proves the superiority of the ZEVM against traditional fuzzy EVM. This work originally adds to the state-of-the-art literature on earned value management by presenting a proposal and applications of a new as Z-Earned Value Management (ZEVM). An illustrative case is resolved to magnify the capability of the proposed framework in dealing with higher levels of uncertainty associated with decision-making data.

中文翻译：

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基于 Z 值的挣值管理 (ZEVM)：对可能的成本持续时间评估的新颖实用贡献

摘要 挣值管理 (EVM) 是一种简化的分析成本-工期评估工具，可帮助项目经理监控所承担项目的状态。EVM 已经通过确定性和不确定性数字（例如模糊逻辑）根据时间进行了阐述。尽管成本-工期分析在项目中是如此敏感和波动，但所采用的方法无法考虑始终涉及决策数据的明显不可靠性。这个问题阻碍了项目经理相信可预见的推论。为了帮助克服这个严重的缺陷，Z 数被提出来考虑可能性和可靠性。在 EVM 中应用 Z 数和可能性建模是一个具有挑战性的主题，它会显着提高成本-持续时间跟踪结果的准确性。本文介绍了 z 数在挣值指标建模中的应用，并证明了 ZEVM 相对于传统模糊 EVM 的优越性。这项工作最初通过提出新的 Z 挣值管理 (ZEVM) 的提案和应用，增加了关于挣值管理的最新文献。解决了一个说明性案例，以放大拟议框架在处理与决策数据相关的更高水平的不确定性方面的能力。这项工作最初通过提出新的 Z 挣值管理 (ZEVM) 的提案和应用，增加了关于挣值管理的最新文献。解决了一个说明性案例，以放大拟议框架在处理与决策数据相关的更高水平的不确定性方面的能力。这项工作最初通过提出新的 Z 挣值管理 (ZEVM) 的提案和应用，增加了关于挣值管理的最新文献。解决了一个说明性案例，以放大拟议框架在处理与决策数据相关的更高水平的不确定性方面的能力。