Abstract The objective of this study was to obtain diagnostic performance estimates for immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) tests, for Bacterial Kidney Disease (BKD) surveillance in farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar.) broodstock without clinical signs compatible with the disease in Chile. To obtain diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) estimates of those tests, an expert elicitation process was conducted using the trial roulette method during a workshop with 18 national experts on BKD diagnostics and control. A questionnaire was given to the experts to gather information on their previous experience with BKD, and 12 experts who received an introduction to the expert-elicitation process and graphical representation of statistical distributions. Experts were divided into three groups and requested to draw distributions of DSe and DSp parameters using an online tool. Then figures where projected and discussed among participants. After the discussion round, experts were requested to redraw their distributions (if considered necessary). The agreement between groups was assessed by calculating the overlapping areas between the three distributions for each parameter. Finally, a consensus distribution was generated. In general, groups had moderate to high agreement with overlapping areas between 53% to 93% for DSpIFAT, DSeqPCR, and DSpqPCR. Conversely, no agreement was reached for the DSeIFAT distribution. Specifically, median estimates of 89.5%, 90.5%, and 95.9%, were obtained for DSpIFAT, DSeqPCR, & DSpqPCR, respectively. In the case of DSeIFAT, the first group provided a median estimate of 28%, whereas groups 2 and 3 reached a consensus value of approximately 62%. This study provides information that is not available in the country, and will help to adjust current BKD control programs, which mainly rely on the use of qPCR assays.

中文翻译：

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专家对智利大西洋鲑鱼（Salmo salar）亲虾细菌性肾病（BKD）监测的两项检测的诊断性能进行了引述

摘要 本研究的目的是获得免疫荧光抗体检测 (IFAT) 和定量聚合酶链反应 (qPCR) 检测的诊断性能评估，用于无临床症状的养殖大西洋鲑鱼 (Salmo salar.) 亲鱼的细菌性肾脏病 (BKD) 监测。与智利的疾病相容。为了获得这些测试的诊断灵敏度 (DSe) 和特异性 (DSp) 估计值，在与 18 位 BKD 诊断和控制国家专家的研讨会期间，使用试验轮盘赌方法进行了专家启发过程。向专家提供了一份调查问卷，以收集有关他们以前使用 BKD 的经验的信息，并向 12 位专家提供了对专家启发过程和统计分布图形表示的介绍。专家分为三组，要求使用在线工具绘制 DSe 和 Dsp 参数的分布。然后在参与者之间预测和讨论数字。在一轮讨论之后，专家们被要求重新绘制他们的分布（如果认为有必要）。通过计算每个参数的三个分布之间的重叠区域来评估组之间的一致性。最后，产生了共识分布。一般而言，对于 DspIFAT、DSeqPCR 和 DspqPCR，各组的重叠区域具有中等至高度的一致性，在 53% 至 93% 之间。相反，没有就 DSeIFAT 分发达成一致。具体而言，分别获得了 DspIFAT、DSeqPCR 和 DSpqPCR 的中位数估计值为 89.5%、90.5% 和 95.9%。在 DSeIFAT 的情况下，第一组提供了 28% 的中位数估计值，而第二组和第三组达到了大约 62% 的共识值。这项研究提供了该国无法获得的信息，并将有助于调整目前主要依赖 qPCR 检测的 BKD 控制程序。