A new standard is proposed for the evidential assessment of replication studies. The approach combines a specific reverse Bayes technique with prior‐predictive tail probabilities to define replication success. The method gives rise to a quantitative measure for replication success, called the sceptical p‐value. The sceptical p‐value integrates traditional significance of both the original and the replication study with a comparison of the respective effect sizes. It incorporates the uncertainty of both the original and the replication effect estimates and reduces to the ordinary p‐value of the replication study if the uncertainty of the original effect estimate is ignored. The framework proposed can also be used to determine the power or the required replication sample size to achieve replication success. Numerical calculations highlight the difficulty of achieving replication success if the evidence from the original study is only suggestive. An application to data from the Open Science Collaboration project on the replicability of psychological science illustrates the methodology proposed.

中文翻译：

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复制研究分析和设计的新标准

为复制研究的证据评估提出了一个新标准。该方法将特定的反向贝叶斯技术与先前预测的尾部概率相结合，以定义复制成功。该方法引起了复制成功的定量度量，称为怀疑p值。怀疑的p值综合了原始研究和复制研究的传统意义，并比较了各自的效应大小。它结合了原始和复制效应估计的不确定性，并减少到普通p-如果忽略原始效应估计的不确定性，则为复制研究的价值。提出的框架还可以用于确定功能或所需的复制样本大小，以实现复制成功。如果来自原始研究的证据仅是暗示性的，则数值计算凸显了实现复制成功的困难。从开放科学合作项目中有关心理学的可复制性的数据的应用说明了所提出的方法。