Wind power is a key renewable electricity source for Europe that is estimated to further develop significantly by 2050. However, the first generation of wind turbines is reaching their End of Life and the disposal of their blades is becoming a crucial waste management problem. Wind turbine blades consist primarily of reinforced composites and currently there is a lack of a sustainable solution to recycle them.

The aim of this study is to estimate the wind turbine blade waste material for Europe until 2050 and is the first study adopting a high geographical granularity level in Europe, while distinguishing between offshore and onshore. In addition, the wind turbines’ lifespan is not considered as a fixed value, but rather as a stochastic distribution based on historic decommissioning data. This study can support researchers, practitioners and policy makers to understand the future evolution of the blade waste material availability, identify local hotspots and opportunities and assess potential circular economy pathways.

The results indicate that wind power capacity in Europe will reach 450 GW in 2050 with the respective total yearly blade waste material reaching 325,000 t. Findings for selected countries reveal that in 2050 Germany will have the majority of blade waste material from onshore wind and the United Kingdom from offshore. There is also a significant fluctuation in the yearly amount of waste expected at the country level, for several countries. Finally, local hotspots of blade waste material are identified.

风力是欧洲的关键可再生能源，据估计到2050年将进一步发展。但是，第一代风力涡轮机的使用寿命已尽，而叶片的处置也正成为至关重要的废物管理问题。风力涡轮机叶片主要由增强复合材料组成，目前缺乏回收它们的可持续解决方案。

这项研究的目的是估计到2050年为止欧洲的风力涡轮机叶片废料，这是第一个采用欧洲高地理粒度水平，同时区分海上和陆上的风力涡轮机的废料。此外，风力涡轮机的寿命不是固定值，而是基于历史退役数据的随机分布。这项研究可以支持研究人员，从业人员和政策制定者了解叶片废料可用性的未来发展，确定当地的热点和机会，并评估潜在的循环经济途径。

结果表明，到2050年，欧洲的风力发电能力将达到450 GW，相应的年叶片废料总量将达到325,000吨。特定国家/地区的调查结果显示，到2050年，德国将拥有大部分陆上风能产生的叶片废料，而英国将产生近海产生的叶片废料。对于一些国家，在国家一级，预计每年的废物量也有很大的波动。最后，确定了叶片废料的局部热点。